锰硅周报：短期仍缺乏趋势，延续震荡整理，等待驱动并向上展望-20260124

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron lack a clear trend and will continue to fluctuate. The market is waiting for a driving force to move upwards [1][77]. - The overall sentiment for commodities is expected to continue in a bullish direction, but the current market focus is on precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and lithium carbonate. The black metal sector currently lacks capital interest [16][95]. - The supply - demand situation of manganese - silicon is not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors are mostly priced in. The supply - demand of silicon - iron is generally balanced and has marginal improvement [16][95]. - The future market trends of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron will be influenced by the direction of the black metal sector and market sentiment, as well as cost increases from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment and supply contractions (or contraction expectations) due to losses or the "dual carbon" policy in the silicon - iron segment [16][95]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manganese - Silicon Report 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Last week, the manganese - silicon futures price showed a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding, continuing to fluctuate, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton or - 0.07%. Technically, it lacks a clear trend and is in a consolidation phase. Pay attention to the resistance at 6000 yuan/ton and 6250 yuan/ton and the support at 5800 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton [13]. - The Tianjin 6517 manganese - silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SM605) closed at 5856 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 0.580%, at a relatively neutral level [15][21]. - The estimated immediate profit of manganese - silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 396 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 631 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at - 475 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week) [15][26]. - The estimated immediate cost of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6076 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week), 6201 yuan/ton in Ningxia (down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week), and 6225 yuan/ton in Guangxi (unchanged week - on - week) [15][31]. - The weekly output of manganese - silicon was 19.11 tons, up 0.06 tons week - on - week, basically stable, and the cumulative weekly production decreased by about 4.28% compared with the same period last year [15][45]. - The weekly output of rebar was 199.55 tons, up 9.25 tons week - on - week. The daily average pig iron output was 228.10 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week [15][59]. - The estimated visible inventory of manganese - silicon was 56.47 tons, up 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the visible inventory remained at a high level compared to the same period [15][70]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Market - The Tianjin 6517 manganese - silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SM605) closed at 5856 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 0.580%, at a relatively neutral level [21]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - The estimated immediate profit of manganese - silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 396 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 631 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at - 475 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week) [25][26]. - As of January 23, 2026, South African ore was reported at 36.2 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.3 yuan/ton - degree week - on - week), Australian ore at 41.6 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.4 yuan/ton - degree week - on - week), Gabonese ore at 42.7 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.6 yuan/ton - degree week - on - week), and the market price of off - grade metallurgical coke was 1185 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [28]. - The estimated immediate cost of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6076 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week), 6201 yuan/ton in Ningxia (down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week), and 6225 yuan/ton in Guangxi (unchanged week - on - week) [31]. - In December, the manganese ore import volume was 327.4 tons, up 58 tons month - on - month and up 72.3 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 3284.2 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 356 tons or 12.17% [34]. - As of January 16, 2026, the manganese ore port inventory continued to decline, reporting 421.8 tons, up 4.3 tons week - on - week. Among them, the total Australian manganese ore port inventory was 71.1 tons, up 2.0 tons week - on - week, and the total high - grade manganese ore port inventory was 129.2 tons, up 5.1 tons week - on - week [37][40]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of manganese - silicon was 19.11 tons, up 0.06 tons week - on - week, basically stable, and the cumulative weekly production decreased by about 4.28% compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, the output of manganese - silicon was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [45]. - The Hebei Steel Group's manganese - silicon tender volume in January 2026 was 17000 tons, up 2300 tons month - on - month; the tender price was 5920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [56]. - As of January 23, 2026, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese - silicon was 11.68 tons, up 0.11 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 199.55 tons, up 9.25 tons week - on - week. The daily average pig iron output was 228.10 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week [59][62]. - In December 2025, the national crude steel output was 6818 tons, down 172 tons month - on - month and down 782 tons year - on - year. The cumulative crude steel output from January to December was 950 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4122 tons or 4.16% [62]. - As of January 23, 2026, the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.86 pct week - on - week to 40.69%, showing a recovery [63]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of January 23, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of manganese - silicon was 56.47 tons, up 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the visible inventory remained at a high level compared to the same period [70]. - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises in the Steel Union's statistics was 37.3 tons, up 0.02 tons week - on - week [73]. - In December, the average available days of manganese - silicon in steel mills was 15.52 days, down 0.32 days month - on - month. The available days of steel mill inventory decreased slightly month - on - month and remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period [76]. 3.2 Silicon - Iron Report 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Last week, the silicon - iron futures price showed a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding, continuing to fluctuate, with a week - on - week decrease of 76 yuan/ton or + 1.37%. Technically, it lacks a clear short - term trend. Pay attention to the resistance at 5850 yuan/ton and 6000 yuan/ton and the support at 5500 yuan/ton and 5450 yuan/ton [91]. - The daily average pig iron output was 228.10 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week. The cumulative output of magnesium metal from January to December 2025 was 87.31 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.36 tons or 0.41% [92]. - The cumulative export volume of silicon - iron from January to December 2025 was 40.09 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.79 tons or 6.50% [92]. - The estimated visible inventory of silicon - iron was 11.32 tons, down 0.29 tons week - on - week. The inventory continued to decline and remained at a relatively low - to - neutral level compared to the same period [93][139]. - The Tianjin 72 silicon - iron spot price was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closed at 5652 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 198 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 3.38%, at a relatively high level [94][100]. - The estimated immediate profit of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia was - 223 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), - 290 yuan/ton in Ningxia (down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), and - 797 yuan/ton in Qinghai (unchanged week - on - week) [94][104]. - The estimated production cost in the main production areas: 5553 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia (unchanged week - on - week), 5590 yuan/ton in Ningxia (unchanged week - on - week), and 6097 yuan/ton in Qinghai (unchanged week - on - week) [94][111]. - The weekly output of silicon - iron was 9.84 tons, down 0.02 tons week - on - week, basically stable, and at a low level compared to the same period [94][116]. 3.2.2 Futures and Spot Market - The Tianjin 72 silicon - iron spot price was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closed at 5652 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 198 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 3.38%, at a relatively high level [100]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - The estimated immediate profit of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia was - 223 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), - 290 yuan/ton in Ningxia (down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), and - 797 yuan/ton in Qinghai (unchanged week - on - week) [104]. - As of January 23, 2026, the silicon stone price in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the semi - coke small material price was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [108]. - The estimated production cost in the main production areas: 5553 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia (unchanged week - on - week), 5590 yuan/ton in Ningxia (unchanged week - on - week), and 6097 yuan/ton in Qinghai (unchanged week - on - week) [111]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of silicon - iron was 9.84 tons, down 0.02 tons week - on - week, basically stable, and at a low level compared to the same period. In December 2025, the output of silicon - iron was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [116]. - The Hebei Steel Group's 75B silicon - iron alloy tender volume in January 2026 was 3313 tons, up 563 tons month - on - month and up 1130 tons year - on - year. The tender price in January was 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month [122]. - As of January 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 228.10 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week. In December 2025, the national crude steel output was 6818 tons, down 172 tons month - on - month and down 782 tons year - on - year. The cumulative crude steel output from January to December was 950 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4122 tons or 4.16% [125]. - The cumulative output of magnesium metal from January to December 2025 was 87.31 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.36 tons or 0.41%. As of January 23, 2026, the magnesium metal price in Fugu area was 16250 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week [128]. - The cumulative export volume of silicon - iron from January to December 2025 was 40.09 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.79 tons or 6.50%. As of January 23, 2026, the estimated export profit of silicon - iron was - 91 yuan/ton, still at a low level compared to the same period [131]. - The cumulative overseas crude steel output from January to November 2025 was 767 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 170 tons or 0.22% [132]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of January 23, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of silicon - iron was 11.32 tons, down 0.29 tons week - on - week. The inventory continued to decline and remained at a relatively low - to - neutral level compared to the same period [139]. - In December, the average available days of silicon - iron in steel mills was 15.41 days, down 0.39 days month - on - month. The raw material inventory of steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month and remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period [142].