镍周报：现实端负反馈影响有限，镍价高位偏强震荡-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback in the real - end has limited impact, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. In the short term, nickel prices are likely to follow market risk preferences, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Resource end: Nickel ore prices rose significantly this week due to the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines and the strengthening of LME nickel prices. In the Philippines, rainfall led to a near - halt in mining and barge shipping, tightening supply and supporting domestic ore prices. China's port inventory further decreased to 7.36 million tons. In Indonesia, the supply and demand of wet - process ore were stable with prices unchanged, while the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore at the factory increased to $54 - 56 per wet ton [11]. - Nickel iron: The price of high - nickel pig iron in China continued to rise sharply this week. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 25 yuan per nickel point to 1,042.5 yuan per nickel point (ex - factory tax - included). The price is expected to remain strong in the short term [11]. - Intermediate products: Nickel intermediate products maintained a pattern of "tight supply + high coefficient" this week. The high price suppressed downstream acceptance, and nickel salt/electrolytic nickel plants purchased on a need - basis and actively sought alternative raw materials. The supply of high - grade nickel matte was also tight with a firm coefficient, but transactions were restricted by high prices [11]. - Refined nickel: Nickel prices first weakened and then strengthened this week. The Shanghai Nickel main contract 2602 closed at 148,010 yuan per ton on Friday, up 2.52% for the week. The LME 3M contract was reported at $18,850 per ton, up 4.07% for the week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures price trends: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts, including the LME 3 - month nickel and the active nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [15]. - Spot premium and discount: It shows the average premium and discount of 1 Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel to the Shanghai Nickel contract, as well as the LME nickel spot premium and discount [18][21]. - Secondary nickel prices: The report includes the price of nickel iron, the price of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate relative to nickel beans [23]. 3.3. Cost Side - Nickel ore: It shows data on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic nickel ore imports, port inventories, and prices in Indonesia and the Philippines [28][30][32]. - Nickel iron: Data on the monthly production of nickel iron in Indonesia and China, as well as the production profit situation, are presented [34][36]. - Intermediate products: Information on the production of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte, domestic imports of MHP and nickel matte, and the price and coefficient of intermediate products is provided [38][40][42]. 3.4. Refined Nickel - Supply: In December 2025, the national refined nickel production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 666 tons compared to October. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rate of domestic refined nickel [46][48]. - Demand: It presents data on domestic stainless - steel production, social inventory, and the terminal demand of the manufacturing and real estate industries [49][51]. - Import and export: The report shows the domestic refined nickel import volume and import profit and loss [53]. - Inventory: It includes domestic refined nickel inventory and the LME's regional inventory [55]. - Cost: Data on the production cost and profit margin of domestic refined nickel by different raw materials and processes are provided [58]. 3.5. Nickel Sulfate - Supply: The report shows the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China [62]. - Demand: It presents data on the installed capacity of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China [65]. - Cost and price: Information on the production cost, price, and profit margin of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials is provided [67]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides a detailed table of the global and Chinese nickel supply - demand balance from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, supply - demand gaps, and inventory changes [71].