铂族金属周报：租赁利率高企，板块表现强势-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 16 to 23, 2026, the price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 3.73% to 497.95 yuan/gram, and the price of the main platinum contract rose 10.96% to 685.9 yuan/gram. The strong performance of gold and silver prices this week drove the strong performance of platinum group metals. The suspension of tariffs did not ease the tight spot market of platinum group metals. The overseas platinum group metal lease rates remained high. Against the backdrop of the overall setback of the US dollar's credit, it is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in platinum and palladium strategies, and platinum group metal prices still have room to rise [10][9]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - Price Changes: From January 16 to 23, 2026, the price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 3.73% to 497.95 yuan/gram, and the price of the main platinum contract rose 10.96% to 685.9 yuan/gram. This week, the price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 14.79% to 2773.2 US dollars per ounce, and the price of the main NYMEX palladium contract rose 9.73% to 2047 US dollars per ounce [10][9]. - Inventory Changes: As of January 23, the CME platinum inventory was 20.71 tons, an increase of 975.6 kilograms this week. The CME palladium inventory rose 166 kilograms to 6.73 tons [9]. - Lease Rates: As of January 23, the one - month implied lease rate for spot platinum was 15.14%, and the one - month implied lease rate for palladium was 7.62%, both at the highest levels in the same period in the past five years [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: Against the backdrop of the overall setback of the US dollar's credit, it is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in platinum and palladium strategies, and platinum group metal prices still have room to rise [9]. 3.2. Market Review - Platinum Price: The price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 14.79% to 2773.2 US dollars per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 20 was 79009 lots. As of January 23, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 681.5 yuan/gram. Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the premium of domestic platinum significantly rebounded [17][23]. - Palladium Price: The price of the main NYMEX palladium contract rose 9.73% to 2047 US dollars per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 20 was 19167 lots [20]. - Lease Rates: As of January 23, the one - month implied lease rate for spot platinum was 15.14%, and the one - month implied lease rate for palladium was 7.62% [24]. - CFTC Net Positions: In the week of January 20, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds decreased from 7536 lots to 4906 lots. The current net position of palladium managed funds is a net short of 255 lots [27][30]. 3.3. Inventory and ETF Position Changes - Platinum ETF Position: As of January 23, the total position of major overseas platinum ETFs was 76.02 tons [41]. - Palladium ETF Position: As of January 23, the total position of major overseas palladium ETFs was 15.56 tons [44]. - Platinum Inventory: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of January 23, the CME platinum inventory was 20.71 tons, an increase of 975.6 kilograms this week [48]. - Palladium Inventory: The CME palladium inventory continued to rise, reaching 6.73 tons as of January 23 [53]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - Platinum Supply: The platinum production forecast of the world's top 15 mines shows that the platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2026 will reach 124.24 tons, a 2.5% decrease from 127.47 tons in 2025 [59]. - Palladium Supply: The production data of the world's top 10 palladium mines shows that the production of the top 10 palladium mines in 2026 will reach 147.73 tons, a 1.1% decrease from 149.37 tons in 2025 [61]. - Platinum Imports in China: As of November, China's cumulative platinum imports reached 91.64 tons, a slight 4.82% year - on - year decrease [64]. - Palladium Imports in China: The cumulative palladium imports were 31.21 tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [67]. 3.5. Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread: Relevant charts show the price differences between different months of NYMEX platinum, such as the 1 - 4 spread, 4 - 7 spread, 7 - 10 spread, and 10 - 1 spread [83][85]. - NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread: Relevant charts show the price differences between different months of NYMEX palladium, such as the 3 - 6 spread, 6 - 9 spread, 9 - 12 spread, and 12 - 3 spread [92][96]. - Cross - Market Spread: Charts show the price differences between the London spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, as well as the London spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price [97].