棉花周报：短线震荡，等待回调做多-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the medium to long term, with the reduction of planting area in the new season and positive macro - expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. However, due to the large short - term increase, it takes time to digest, so wait for a pullback and then choose the opportunity to go long [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and an 8.6 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In January, the forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The forecast for US production in January was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast, with export estimates unchanged and the inventory - to - consumption ratio at 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production estimate remained at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 8th to January 15th, US cotton export sales for the current year were 97,300 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 166,000 tons. Among them, exports to China that week were 3,300 tons, with cumulative exports of 88,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,100 tons [9] - Viewpoint and Strategy: Wait for a pullback and then choose the opportunity to go long [9] - Fundamental Assessment: The basis is 1,149 yuan/ton, the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 165 yuan/ton, the spinning immediate profit is - 1,494 yuan/ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread is 491 yuan/ton. The cost of FC index M 1% is 12,445 yuan/ton, and the cost of FC index M with sliding - scale duty is 13,633 yuan/ton. The long - short score for basis is +0.5, for month - spread is +0, for spinning profit is +0, for Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread is +0, and for cost is - 2. The basis is strengthening, the month - spread has little change, the profit is decreasing, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread has little change, and the domestic premium is high. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then choose the opportunity to go long [10] - Trading Strategy Recommendation: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to go long on pullbacks, with the core driving logic being the reduction of planting area in the new season and positive macro - expectations [11] 3.2. Spread Trend Review - Spot Price and Basis: The report provides the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract [26][27] - Import Profit: It shows the trends of the 1% tariff internal - external spread and the sliding - scale duty internal - external spread [28][29] - Zhengzhou Cotton Month - Spread: It presents the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 spread and the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread [30][31] - Production - Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit: It shows the trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit [32][33] - External Market Spread: It includes the trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff spread [37][38] 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - Domestic Cotton Production: It shows the trends of China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and the Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price [41][42] - Cotton Import Volume: It presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes [43][44] - US Export Contract Quantity to China: It shows the trends of the US cumulative and weekly export contract quantities to China [46][47] - Cotton Yarn Import Volume: It presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes [48][49] - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the trends of the spinning mill and weaving mill operating rates [51][52] - National Sales Progress: It presents the trends of the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [54][55] - Cotton Inventory: It shows the trends of China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the monthly inventory of commercial and industrial cotton [56][57] - Spinning Mill's Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory: It presents the trends of the spinning mill's cotton inventory and yarn inventory in days [58][59] 3.4. International Market Situation - US Planting Situation: It shows the trends of the proportion of US cotton - planting areas without drought and the US cotton good - quality rate [62][63] - US Production Situation: It presents the trends of the US cotton bi - weekly processing volume and the cumulative processing volume [64][65] - US Yield and Planting Area: It shows the trends of the US cotton yield forecast and the planting area [66] - US Export Contract Progress: It presents the trends of the US current - year cumulative and weekly export contract quantities [67][68] - US Export Shipment Volume: It shows the trends of the US annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes [69][70] - US Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: It presents the trends of the US cotton supply surplus/shortage and the inventory - to - consumption ratio [71] - Brazilian Yield and Planting Area: It shows the trends of the Brazilian cotton planting area and yield [72][73] - Brazilian Export Volume: It presents the trends of the Brazilian cotton export volume forecast and the monthly export volume [75] - Brazilian Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: It presents the trends of the Brazilian cotton supply surplus/shortage and the inventory - to - consumption ratio [76] - Indian Yield and Planting Area: It shows the trends of the Indian cotton planting area and yield [77][78] - Indian Consumption and Import - Export: It presents the trends of the Indian cotton consumption, import, and export volumes [79][80] - Indian Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: It presents the trends of the Indian cotton supply surplus/shortage and the inventory - to - consumption ratio [81]