锡周报：库存稳步回升，锡价高位震荡-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic tin price increased by 6.0% week - on - week. Due to the tight supply of tin ingots, downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, and speculative funds on the futures market increased positions to drive up the price, jointly pushing the tin price up significantly [11]. - In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level this week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. There is limited upward momentum after the two places recovered from maintenance, and short - term supply is difficult to increase significantly [11]. - On the demand side, the downstream consumer electronics is still in the traditional off - season, and terminal orders are weak. However, the demand from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers supports tin solders to some extent. Although the high tin price significantly suppresses the downstream purchasing intention, the downstream inventory is generally low, and the acceptance of the tin price is gradually increasing. After the tin price fell this week, the rigid - demand replenishment demand was released intensively [11]. - In terms of inventory, as of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from last Friday. Overall, although the supply is stable and the social inventory has rebounded significantly, the tin price is difficult to fall in the short term under the background of low inventory and is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In December, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. In December 2025, China imported 17,637 tons of tin concentrates in physical quantity, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. From the perspective of major importing countries, the total import volume from Africa was 2,375 tons, a decrease of 11.1%; from Myanmar, it was 993 tons, an increase of 14.3%; from Australia, it was 912 tons, an increase of 91.5%; and from South America, the total import volume was 426 tons, an increase of 118.5% [11]. - Supply side: The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at a high level, and this week it was 88%, basically the same as last week. However, restricted by the tight supply of raw materials, there is limited room for further improvement. Jiangxi is still affected by the shortage of scrap supply, the supply of crude tin is tight, and the refined tin output continues to be at a low level. Overall, the operating rate of domestic smelters remains stable at a high level [11]. - Demand side: Downstream consumer electronics is still in the traditional off - season, and terminal orders are weak. However, the demand from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers supports tin solders to some extent. The overall operating rate of tin solder enterprises remains stable, and downstream solder and electronic enterprises continue the low - inventory strategy. Spot purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the willingness to actively replenish inventory is limited [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented, including the basis of Shanghai Tin main - continuous contract (yuan/ton) and the LME tin premium (0 - 3) (US dollars/ton) [17][19] 3.3 Cost Side - In December 2025, China imported 17,637 tons of tin concentrates in physical quantity, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. From the perspective of major importing countries, the total import volume from Africa was 2,375 tons, a decrease of 11.1%; from Myanmar, it was 993 tons, an increase of 14.3%; from Australia, it was 912 tons, an increase of 91.5%; and from South America, the total import volume was 426 tons, an increase of 118.5% [11]. - No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented, including China's monthly tin ore production, tin ore import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [21][23][25] 3.4 Supply Side - The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at a high level, and this week it was 88%, basically the same as last week. However, restricted by the tight supply of raw materials, there is limited room for further improvement. Jiangxi is still affected by the shortage of scrap supply, the supply of crude tin is tight, and the refined tin output continues to be at a low level. Overall, the operating rate of domestic smelters remains stable at a high level [11]. - No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin output and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [27][28][30] 3.5 Demand Side - Downstream consumer electronics is still in the traditional off - season, and terminal orders are weak. However, the demand from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers supports tin solders to some extent. The overall operating rate of tin solder enterprises remains stable, and downstream solder and electronic enterprises continue the low - inventory strategy. Spot purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the willingness to actively replenish inventory is limited [11]. - China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [42]. - No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented, including China's and global semiconductor sales, domestic computer and smartphone production, production of household appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs, China's photovoltaic cell production and photovoltaic installation, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, domestic PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic tin apparent consumption [40][43][45] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance (Inventory) - As of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from last Friday [11]. - No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented, including China's social inventory and LME inventory [57][58]