碳酸锂周报：供给扰动频繁，淡季去库强支撑-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up, with the Wenhua Industrial Products Index rising by 2.69%. Lithium carbonate has rebounded continuously, breaking through last week's high. Currently, the "rush to export" of batteries supports the off - season demand. The domestic production of lithium salt plants has reached a short - term high after maintenance, and the SMM domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to decline. In the short term, there are many disturbances in the mining end, and the supply uncertainty is strong. The overall commodity market fluctuates greatly. The rapid rise of lithium prices hides the risk of correction. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. Attention should be paid to the market atmosphere, demand policies, downstream purchasing willingness, and changes in the position on the disk [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - On January 23, the evening quotation of the Five - Mineral Steel Union Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 174,830 yuan, with a weekly increase of 8.16%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 175,250 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 181,520 yuan, with a weekly increase of 7.55% [12]. - On January 22, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 22,217 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. In 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 243,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In December 2025, Chile exported 11,704 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.4% [12]. - From January 1 - 18, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 312,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16% compared with the same period in January last year and a 52% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 312,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16%. From January 1 - 18, the wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 348,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 23% compared with the same period in January last year and a 46% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 348,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 23%. The first quarter is a critical window period for "rush to export" of batteries, and the off - season demand is expected to increase. The decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [12]. - On January 22, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 108,896 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 783 tons (-0.7%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 27.8 days. On January 23, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 28,886 tons, a weekly increase of 6.2% [12]. - The change in lithium salt prices is transmitted upstream. On January 23, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,150 - 2,400 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 9.11%. In December, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. In 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 6.209 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. In 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The supply of high - cost hard - rock mines is accelerating, and the import of lithium mines is significantly supplemented [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On January 23, the evening quotation of the Five - Mineral Steel Union Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 174,830 yuan, with a weekly increase of 8.16%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 175,250 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 181,520 yuan, with a weekly increase of 7.55% [20]. - The average discount price in the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is - 1,000 yuan (referring to the main contract LC2605). The net short position of the main seats of the lithium carbonate contract has increased [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 10,000 yuan [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - On January 22, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 22,217 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. In December 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 42.4%. The annual output increased by 43.6% year - on - year [31]. - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 60,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4% and a year - on - year increase of 48.7%. The annual output increased by 70.3% year - on - year. In December, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 13,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and an annual increase of 17.4% year - on - year [34]. - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 3.1% month - on - month to 14,990 tons, with an annual increase of 15.1% year - on - year. In December, the output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 10,010 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9% and an annual increase of 27.3% year - on - year [37]. - In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. In 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 243,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In December 2025, Chile exported 11,704.02 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.4% [40]. 3.4 Demand Side - The battery field dominates the lithium demand. In 2024, the global consumption accounted for 87%. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the proportion of traditional application fields is limited and the growth is weak. The proportion of lithium used in fields such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powders, air conditioners, and medicine is only 5% [44]. - From January 1 - 18, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 312,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16% compared with the same period in January last year and a 52% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 312,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16%. From January 1 - 18, the wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 348,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 23% compared with the same period in January last year and a 46% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 348,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 23% [47]. - In 2025, about 3.77 million new - energy vehicles were sold in Europe, a year - on - year increase of 30.5%. In 2025, about 1.6 million new - energy vehicles were sold in the United States, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [50]. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in December, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. From January to December, the cumulative output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 1,755.6 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 60.1%. In December, the domestic power - battery loading volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic power - battery loading volume was 769.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.4% [53]. - In 2025, the domestic output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 58.8% year - on - year, and the domestic output of ternary materials increased by 23.5% year - on - year. The first quarter is a critical window period for "rush to export" of batteries, and the off - season demand is expected to increase. The decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [56]. 3.5 Inventory - On January 22, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 108,896 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 783 tons (-0.7%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 27.8 days. On January 23, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 28,886 tons, a weekly increase of 6.2% [63]. - Driven by the "rush to export" demand, the inventory of cathode materials has decreased. The inventories of power batteries and energy - storage batteries are at a low level in recent years [66]. 3.6 Cost Side - The change in lithium salt prices is transmitted upstream. On January 23, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,150 - 2,400 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 9.11% [73]. - In December, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. In 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 6.209 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. In 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The supply of high - cost hard - rock mines is accelerating, and the import of lithium mines is significantly supplemented [76].