不锈钢周报 2026/01/24：镍铁涨价趋势延续，继续看好估值上行-20260124

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stainless - steel market was active in trading last week, with prices fluctuating more sharply. Due to the widening price difference between nickel and stainless steel, some nickel - iron production capacity shifted to high - grade nickel matte production with better profits, leading to a tight supply of nickel - iron and limited high - quality and tradable resources in the market. Also, the futures warehouse receipts were at a low level, resulting in a short - term structural supply shortage in the stainless - steel market, and the near - month contracts continued to strengthen. - Although downstream demand weakened before the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm of traders for stockpiling increased, and the social inventory continued to decline. - On Friday last week, market news indicated that the port logistics of the Indonesia Tsingshan Industrial Park might be suspected of monopoly. If the Indonesian government intervenes in the investigation later, the shipment of Tsingshan - related products may be affected, further increasing the uncertainty on the supply side of stainless steel. - Overall, the expectation of tight supply at the raw material end has not been reversed, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up in the later period, but the fluctuations may be large. The reference range for the main contract is 14,150 - 15,500 yuan/ton [12][15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Data: On January 23, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 14,600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.74%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,035 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 1.97%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,725 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.15% [12]. - Supply: In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in December was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in December was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [12]. - Demand: From January to December 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in December was 18.2% [12]. - Inventory: The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 878,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51%; on January 23, the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 38,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,180 tons. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 132,400 tons, 599,500 tons, and 189,600 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.48% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.66%, and the unloading quantity was 83,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.88% [12]. - Cost: The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong last week was 1,040 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan per nickel. Ironworks in Fujian region currently have a profit of 39 yuan per nickel [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Price Changes: On January 23, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 14,600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.74%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,035 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 1.97%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,725 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.15% [20]. - Market Quotes: The market quotation of Foshan Delong was about - 675 yuan (- 177) higher than the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang was about - 325 yuan (- 127) higher than the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 318,380 lots, a month - on - month increase of 21.80% [24]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The spread between contract 1 and contract 2 was reported at 0 (- 5), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was reported at 45 (+ 55) [27]. 3.3. Supply Side - Domestic Production: In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in December was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in December was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [32][35]. - Indonesian Production and Imports: It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in December was 420,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; according to MYSTEEL data, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 121,400 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 39.16% [38]. - Export: In December, the net export volume of stainless steel was 340,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.96% and a year - on - year increase of 5.13%; from January to December, the cumulative net export volume was 3.1937 million tons, 8.06% higher than the net export volume of the same period last year [41]. 3.4. Demand Side - Real Estate: From January to December 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57% [46]. - Home Appliances and Other Industries: In December, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in December was 18.2%. In December, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 133,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32%; the automobile sales volume in December was 3.2722 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.20% [49][52]. 3.5. Inventory - Total and Futures Inventory: The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 878,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51%, and the previous forecast value was 860,000 tons. The inventory reduction level was slightly lower than expected, and the downstream's willingness to purchase goods was weak in the off - season. The futures warehouse receipt inventory last week was 46,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,483 tons [57]. - Inventory by Series and Shipping Indicators: The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 132,400 tons, 599,500 tons, and 189,600 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.48% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.66%, and the unloading quantity was 83,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.88% [60]. 3.6. Cost Side - Nickel Ore: In December, the import volume of nickel ore was 1.9928 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.27% and a year - on - year increase of 31.13%. Currently, the quoted price of nickel ore with 1.5% nickel content is 54.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory is 12.7338 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52% [65]. - Nickel - Iron: The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong last week was 1,040 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan per nickel. Ironworks in Fujian region currently have a profit of 39 yuan per nickel [68]. - Chromium Ore and High - Carbon Chromium Iron: Last week, the quoted price of chromium ore was 56.25 yuan per dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 yuan per dry ton; the quoted price of high - carbon chromium iron was 8,450 yuan per 50 - base ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan per 50 - base ton. In December, the output of high - carbon chromium iron was 887,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [71]. - Profit Margin: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is 868 yuan per ton, and the profit margin reaches 6.32% [74].