国债周报：债市情绪有所回暖-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data for December shows that the production side has improved driven by exports, while on the demand side, the marginal effect of policies has weakened, leading to a slowdown in durable - goods consumption. There are still drags from the real - estate market and insufficient consumer confidence, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The export data in December was stronger than expected, with a decline in exports to the US and resilient growth in non - US regions. The central bank has carried out a structural interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points and indicated that there is room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. Overseas, the US liquidity has improved, and the market has postponed the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cut to mid - year [10]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed after the structural interest rate cut. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and the capital market is expected to be stable. Recently, the bond market has strong allocation power, but the impact of the stock market's spring rally, government bond supply, and inflation expectations still needs to be noted. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate, and the rhythm mainly depends on the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [11]. - The improvement of the fundamentals still needs to be observed. The current downward adjustment space of the bond market is limited. In the future, the capital market is expected to remain loose. With the increasing uncertainty of tariff disturbances and external demand, there is still pressure on the economy to achieve stable growth. The direction of loose monetary policy and the adjustment trend of capital - intensive industries are difficult to change. In the long - term, the bond market should mainly adopt the idea of buying on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy Situation: In December, the production side improved due to exports. The marginal effect of policies on the demand side weakened, leading to a slowdown in durable - goods consumption. The real - estate market was a drag, and consumer confidence was insufficient. Exports in December were stronger than expected, with a decline in exports to the US and resilient growth in non - US regions. The central bank carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and indicated room for further cuts. Overseas, the US liquidity improved, and the market postponed the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cut to mid - year. China's GDP in 2025 was 1,401,879 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5% at constant prices. In December, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 0.9% year - on - year. In 2026, the first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal was allocated, driving total investment of over 460 billion yuan. The personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy was extended to the end of 2026. Japan's House of Representatives was dissolved, and the Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% [10]. - Liquidity: This week, the central bank conducted 1,181 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 951.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 229.5 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.49% [11]. - Interest Rates: The latest 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12 BP; the 30 - year treasury bond yield was 2.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.50 BP; the latest 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.24%, with no week - on - week change [11]. - Trading Strategy: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [16][20][26][29][31][34]. 3.3. Major Economic Data - Domestic Economy - GDP: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations, and the economy maintained resilience in the first three quarters [37]. - PMI: In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous value; the service industry PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. In the manufacturing PMI sub - items, both supply and demand improved moderately, with the production index rising 1.7 percentage points to 51.7% and new orders rising 1.6 percentage points to 50.8% [38][44]. - Price Index: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. On a month - on - month basis, CPI, core CPI, and PPI all increased by 0.2% [47]. - Exports: In December 2025, exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [50]. - Industrial Added Value and Social Consumer Goods Retail Sales: In December, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown due to high bases and diminishing marginal utility of durable goods [53]. - Fixed - Asset Investment and Real - Estate Market: From January to December, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and the real - estate investment growth rate was - 17.2%. In December, the price of second - hand housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month and 6.1% year - on - year. The cumulative value of new housing starts in December was 587.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%, and the cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The cumulative year - on - year data of the completion end in December decreased by 18.16%, and the new housing sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened recently [56][60][63]. - Foreign Economy - US Economy: In the third quarter, the US GDP at current prices was 3,109.5 billion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth rate of 2.33% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 4.30%. In December, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. In October, the US durable goods orders were 307.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 4.81%. In December 2025, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. In December, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4 [66][69][72]. - EU Economy: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the euro - area CPI increased by 2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 48.8, and the service industry PMI was 52.4 [72][75]. 3.4. Liquidity - In December, the M1 growth rate was 3.8%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.5%. The social financing increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 645.7 billion yuan. The new RMB loans were 970 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 80 billion yuan. In the social financing sub - items, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector was stable. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 6.1%. In December, the MLF balance was 6.25 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 1,181 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 951.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 229.5 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.49% [80][83][86]. 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rates: The report shows the changes in various interest rates, including repurchase rates (R001, R007, DR001, DR007), treasury bond yields (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, 30 - year), and the 10 - year US treasury bond yield, including daily, weekly, and monthly changes [89]. - Exchange Rates: The report presents the trends of the USDCNH spot exchange rate and the US dollar index [100].