铅周报：再生原料转紧，铅锭延续累库-20260124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Although the visible inventory of lead ore has further increased and is higher than the same period in previous years, the high by - product profit suppresses the further decline of lead concentrate TC. The primary smelting start - up rate has slightly declined but remains at a high level, while the secondary smelting start - up rate has increased marginally. The finished product inventories of primary and secondary smelting plants and the social inventory of lead ingots have all increased, indicating a weak industrial situation. However, it is worth noting that the lead price has declined with the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sentiment. After the winter temperature drops, the transportation of waste batteries is blocked, the raw materials for secondary smelting have tightened, and the secondary smelting profit calculated based on spot orders is marginally under pressure. It is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: Last Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.23% at 17,106 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 103,000 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Lead 3S fell 6 to 2,026 dollars/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 167,200 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,825 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton [11] - Domestic Structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 28,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 34,200 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from January 19. The domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 218,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 31,400 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 45.02 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 127.1 dollars/ton. Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.219, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 201.44 yuan/ton [11] - Industrial Data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 49,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 493,000 tons. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.9%, and the factory inventory of primary lead ingots was 40,400 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 93,000 tons, the secondary smelting start - up rate was 49%, and the factory inventory of secondary lead ingots was 22,800 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 70.77% [11] 2. Primary Supply - Import Data: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 149,200 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,425,300 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 239,300 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,931,000 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6% [15] - Production Data: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,658,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [17] - Total Supply: In December 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 311,500 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 3,285,900 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In October 2025, the overseas lead ore production was 256,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 3.39% and a month - on - month change of 6.60%. From January to October, the total production of lead ore was 2,407,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.35% [19] - Inventory and TC: The port inventory of lead concentrate was 49,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 493,000 tons. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 250 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - Smelting: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.9%, and the factory inventory of primary lead ingots was 40,400 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.56% and a month - on - month change of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.32% [26] 3. Secondary Supply - Raw Materials and Production: The waste lead inventory at the secondary end was 93,000 tons. The secondary smelting start - up rate was 49%, and the factory inventory of secondary lead ingots was 22,800 tons. In December 2025, China's secondary lead production was 354,500 tons, with a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of - 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.52% [31][33] - Trade and Total Supply: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, with a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 146,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. In December 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 715,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,956,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - Battery Demand: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 70.77%. In December 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [40] - Battery Exports: In December 2025, the net export volume of lead - containing lead - acid batteries was 1,664,900 units, with a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million units, with a cumulative net export year - on - year change of - 13.06% [43] - Inventory: In December 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [45] - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [50][52][55] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Balance: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 4,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 12,400 tons [64] - Overseas Balance: In October 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 98,400 tons [67] 6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 28,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 34,200 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from January 19. The domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [72] - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 218,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 31,400 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 45.02 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 127.1 dollars/ton [74] - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [77] - Position: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Lead decreased, the net long position of investment funds in LME Lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [80]