甲醇周报：宽幅震荡，拉锯维持-20260124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the current valuation of methanol is relatively low, and its outlook for the next year is expected to improve marginally, with limited downside potential. Despite short - term negative pressures, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has created certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips, and this view is maintained from last week [16] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Market Trend: A chart of the methanol index is shown, but no specific trend analysis in text is provided [13] - Factor Assessment and Strategy: In terms of supply, overseas methanol production starts to slow down seasonally, while domestic production remains high; in terms of trade flow, the previous high - volume overseas shipments are arriving at ports, and current overseas shipments are seasonally decreasing, with a neutral outlook. In terms of demand, the operating rates of MTO, olefins, and formaldehyde remain high, but the low valuation of MTO lacks obvious driving forces, and downstream users are hesitant about the current methanol price, limiting its upside, also with a neutral outlook. Regarding inventory, the reduction of port inventory at high levels has slowed down, and it is expected to accumulate again later; factory inventory remains stable, with a neutral - to - bearish outlook. For cost, the replenishment of thermal coal has fallen short of expectations, and its price has started to decline from a high level; oil and gas prices maintain a weak oscillation with expected limited volatility, with a neutral outlook. The overall strategy is to buy on dips [16] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Basis and Spread: Charts of the methanol term structure, Jiangsu methanol price, methanol 01 basis, and methanol 1 - 5 spread are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [20][22][24] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Charts of the trading volume and open interest of the methanol 01 contract, as well as the total trading volume and open interest of methanol, are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [29][32] 3. Profit and Inventory - Raw Material Prices: Charts of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and thermal coal prices in Ordos and Qinhuangdao are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [43][45] - Production Profit: Charts of the profit calculations for coal - based methanol production in Inner Mongolia, Southwest gas - based methanol production, and other regions are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [48][49] - Port Inventory: Charts of port inventory, East China port inventory, South China port inventory, and methanol social inventory are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [54][56] - Regional Inventory: Charts of factory inventory, factory inventory in the northwest region, East China regional inventory, and Ningbo port inventory are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [62][63] 4. Supply Side - Shipping Schedule Monitoring: Charts of global methanol shipments and arrivals, Middle East shipments, and Asia - Pacific arrivals are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [70] - Upstream Production and Operating Rate: Charts of domestic and overseas methanol operating rates and weekly production are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [76][74] - Import Volume: Charts of import volume, imports from Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [78][81] - Arrival Volume: Charts of the arrival volume in East China, South China, and the whole of China are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [86][88] - International Spread: Charts of import profit, spreads between China and Southeast Asia, the US Gulf, and Europe are presented, with the regional spread showing weak ports and strong inland areas. Also, charts of freight rates are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [94][96][106] 5. Demand Side - Methanol - to - Olefins: Charts of olefin operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang MTO operating rates, and the profits of Fude and Xingxing are presented, as well as the production profits of various PP production processes, MTO - related spreads. However, no specific analysis is provided [114][118][121] - Traditional Downstream: Charts of the capacity utilization rate of 1,4 - butanediol, the operating rates and profits of DMF, DMC, acetic acid, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and the inventory of downstream methanol users are presented. Also, charts of the price ratios of methanol to related products are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [130][133][157] 6. Options - Related - Methanol Options: Charts of methanol option open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [161] 7. Industry Structure Diagram - Methanol Industry Chain and Research Framework: Charts of the methanol industry chain and the methanol research framework analysis mind - map are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [165][167]