Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of gold and silver were extremely strong, hitting new all - time highs. The price increase is driven by concerns about the stability of the US dollar credit and the Fed's monetary policy, and the upward trend has a solid macro - driving force. It is recommended to go long on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1074 - 1300 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 22612 - 28000 yuan/kilogram [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - Weekly Summary: This week, domestic markets saw Shanghai Gold rise 8.07% to 1115.64 yuan/gram and Shanghai Silver rise 11.04% to 24965.00 yuan/kilogram by Friday's daytime close. COMEX Gold rose 7.85% to 4983.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 11.98% to 103.26 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.24%, and the US dollar index fell 1.88% to 97.51 [11]. - Dollar Credit Impact: The "island - grabbing storm" of the US regarding Greenland has severely damaged the US dollar's credit. European pension funds and a Canadian teacher retirement fund announced the reduction of US Treasury holdings. The long - term US Treasury demand has weakened, and gold, as a substitute for US Treasury bonds, has increased in allocation value. Poland's central bank approved a 150 - ton gold purchase plan [11]. - Inflation and Economic Data: The US Q3 PCE price index's quarterly - on - quarterly annualized value was 2.8%, lower than the expected 3.5%. The core PCE price index's quarterly - on - quarterly annualized value was 2.9%, in line with expectations. The US January S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 51.9, lower than the expected 52, and the service PMI was 52.5, lower than the expected 52.8. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and October [11]. - Market Outlook: The strong performance of gold and silver prices reflects concerns about the US dollar's credit and the Fed's monetary policy stability. The tightness of the silver spot market cannot be alleviated by the outflow of COMEX inventory. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the Shanghai Gold main contract's reference range at 1074 - 1300 yuan/gram and the Shanghai Silver main contract's at 22612 - 28000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 2. Market Review - Price Changes: This week, Shanghai Gold rose 8.07% to 1115.64 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 11.04% to 24965.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX Gold rose 7.85% to 4983.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 11.98% to 103.26 US dollars/ounce [30]. - Position Changes: Shanghai Gold's total open interest rose 4.9% to 366,300 lots, and COMEX Gold's total open interest as of the latest report period rose 0.1% to 528,000 lots. Shanghai Silver's total open interest fell 0.36% to 708,800 lots, and COMEX Silver's total open interest as of the latest report period rose 0.33% to 152,000 lots [33][36]. - ETF Holdings: As of January 23, the total holdings of gold ETFs within the LSEG statistical scope were 2377.2 tons, and the total holdings of foreign - market silver ETFs were 29634.5 tons [41]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - US Treasury Yields: The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and the yields of short - term US Treasury bonds are presented in the figures. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is also shown in relation to the real interest rate and inflation expectations [52][55]. - Fed's Balance Sheet: The Fed's balance sheet shows changes in assets and liabilities. For example, the Fed's holdings of securities increased by 19.77 billion US dollars, and the total liabilities increased by 28.79 billion US dollars [56]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - CPI and PCE: The US December CPI year - on - year value was 2.7%, in line with expectations, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The core CPI year - on - year value was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7%, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [64]. - Employment: As of the week ending January 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [67]. - PMI and PPI: The US December ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6 [70]. - New Home Data: The annualized value of new home starts in the US in October was 1.246 million units, lower than the expected 1.325 million units and the previous value of 1.291 million units. The annualized value of building permits was 1.412 million units, higher than the expected 1.35 million units [73]. 5. Precious Metals Spreads - Gold Basis: The outer - market gold basis (London spot gold - COMEX gold) and the inner - market gold basis (AuT+D - SHFE gold) are presented, showing their respective changes [12]. - Silver Basis: The outer - market silver basis (London spot silver - COMEX silver) and the inner - market silver basis (AgT+D - SHFE silver) show their changes [12]. - Internal - External Spreads: The internal - external spreads of gold (Shanghai Gold and COMEX Gold) and silver (Shanghai Silver and COMEX Silver) are presented in the figures [83][85]. 6. Precious Metals Inventories - Silver Inventories: The combined silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX, as well as the inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange, are presented in the figures. The COMEX and LBMA silver inventories also show their trends [90][93]. - Gold Inventories: The COMEX and LBMA gold inventories are presented in the figures, showing their trends [95][97].
贵金属周报：宏观与现货双驱动，金银价格共创新高-20260124
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-24 14:24