Report on Float Glass 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the overall market sentiment was weak. Affected by insufficient orders from downstream deep - processing enterprises, low inventory - stocking willingness, and seasonal factors approaching the Spring Festival, terminal demand was weak. Most regions saw a slight accumulation or stability in inventory, and the overall de - stocking rhythm lacked sustainability. Currently, the float glass market lacks substantial positive drivers, and market participants are mostly in a wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to show a narrow - range oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 1000 - 1175 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1010 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main glass contract was 1057 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton; the basis was - 47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton [13][19]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.90 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [13][29][32]. - Supply: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62%. The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, remaining unchanged week - on - week [13][37][40]. - Demand: According to WIND data, from January to December 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. According to CAAM data, in December, the production and sales of automobiles were 329.60/327.22 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%/6.20%; from January to December, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.10/3440.00 million vehicles [13][43][46]. - Inventory: As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5321.58 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 20.28 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 188.48 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 million heavy boxes [13][51]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1010 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main glass contract was 1057 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton; the basis was - 47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton [19]. - Glass Inter - month Spread: As of January 23, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was 159 yuan/ton (+318), the 05 - 09 spread was - 105 yuan/ton (+2), the 09 - 01 spread was - 54 yuan/ton (-320), and the open interest reached 155.73 million lots [22]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.90 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [29][32]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Glass Output and Operating Rate: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62% [37]. - Glass Demand: As of January 23, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, remaining unchanged week - on - week. From January to December 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the production and sales of automobiles were 329.60/327.22 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%/6.20%; from January to December, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.10/3440.00 million vehicles [40][43][46]. 3.5 Inventory As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5321.58 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 20.28 million heavy boxes, and the previous forecast value was 5050.8 million heavy boxes. The de - stocking market did not appear as expected. As the demand from processing plants came to an end, it was more difficult to reduce the factory inventory, and the estimated inventory for this week was 5300 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 188.48 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 million heavy boxes [51]. Report on Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the supply - demand pattern of the soda ash market was generally loose. The supply side remained abundant, and the purchasing mentality of downstream enterprises became more cautious. However, the inventory of glass factories was low, and the pre - holiday restocking demand increased. The trading volume at the Shahe and Hebei delivery warehouses was more than 30,000 tons. Overall, the current market lacks substantial positive drivers, the futures market maintains a weak oscillating trend, which further affects the spot market and market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term soda ash market will continue to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 1120 - 1260 yuan/ton [62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main soda ash contract was 1185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the basis was - 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [62][68]. - Cost and Profit: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 168.3 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 693 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week [62][79][82]. - Supply: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.42%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 tons; the output of light soda ash was 35.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons [62][90][93]. - Demand: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in December reached 2.95 million tons [62][96]. - Inventory: As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0538 million tons; the available inventory days were 12.61 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 69.67 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.13 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 82.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 tons [62][101][104]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main soda ash contract was 1185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the basis was - 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [68]. - Soda Ash Inter - month Spread: As of January 23, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was 100 yuan/ton (+176), the 05 - 09 spread was - 62 yuan/ton (+3), the 09 - 01 spread was - 38 yuan/ton (-179), and the open interest reached 155.73 million lots [71]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 168.3 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton [79]. - Raw Material Cost: The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 693 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton [82][85]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Output: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.42%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 tons; the output of light soda ash was 35.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons [90][93]. - Soda Ash Demand: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in December reached 2.95 million tons [96]. 3.5 Inventory As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0538 million tons; the available inventory days were 12.61 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 days. The previous forecast value was 1.5727 million tons, and the de - stocking speed was slightly faster than expected; it is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease this week, with the estimated value of 1.48 million tons. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 69.67 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.13 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 82.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 tons [101][104].
玻璃周报：季节性需求走弱，市场观望情绪浓厚-20260124
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-24 14:33