铁矿石周报：事故扰动铁水复产，矿价震荡反复-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline, with shipments from Australia and Brazil decreasing, while those from non - mainstream countries increasing. Near - end arrivals also decreased. Daily hot metal production increased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate improved. Port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past five years, and the inventory structure problem remained unsolved. Due to market sentiment fluctuations and accident disturbances, iron ore prices will fluctuate in the short term. Future focus should be on steel mill restocking and hot metal production rhythm [11][13][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Global iron ore shipments were 29.298 million tons, a decrease of 2.511 million tons week - on - week. Shipments from Australia and Brazil were 22.466 million tons, a decrease of 3.598 million tons. Australian shipments were 16.88 million tons, down 2.436 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 13.897 million tons, a decrease of 2.624 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 5.586 million tons, a decrease of 1.162 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 28.977 million tons, a decrease of 1.173 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 26.597 million tons, a decrease of 2.607 million tons [13] - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.281 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons week - on - week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.51%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points [13] - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 national ports was 174.9653 million tons, an increase of 2.0783 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.2052 million tons, a decrease of 1.45 million tons [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 122 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 4 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 2 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 4 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 19.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 3 yuan/ton [19][22] - Feed ratio and scrap steel: The pellet feed ratio was 14.7%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points. The lump ore feed ratio was 11.92%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.38%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 10 yuan/ton. The Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,110 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 0 yuan/ton [25] - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week. The PB powder import profit was 18.82 yuan/wet ton [28] 3.3 Inventory - 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 167.6653 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 2.1143 million tons. Pellet inventory was 4.0614 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.1514 million tons [35] - Iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 15.4632 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.1661 million tons. Lump ore inventory at ports was 22.049 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.5077 million tons [38] - Australian ore port inventory was 75.8805 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.9884 million tons. Brazilian ore port inventory was 56.2871 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.7843 million tons [41] - The steel mill imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.266 million tons [46] 3.4 Supply Side - Shipments: The volume of Australian ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 13.262 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.671 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 5.537 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 1.106 million tons [51] - Major miners: Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 4.286 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.799 million tons. BHP's shipments to China were 2.86 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.695 million tons. Vale's shipments were 3.879 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.017 million tons. FMG's shipments to China were 3.676 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.238 million tons [54][57] - Arrivals and imports: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons. In December, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 21.9278 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9236 million tons [60] - Domestic production: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 60.09%, a week - on - week change of + 0.37 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 0.4695 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.028 million tons [66] 3.5 Demand Side - Production and utilization rate: The domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.281 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons week - on - week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.51%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points week - on - week [71] - Port clearance and consumption: The 45 - port iron ore daily average port clearance volume was 3.1073 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0916 million tons. The steel mill imported iron ore daily consumption was 2.819 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0006 million tons [74] 3.6 Basis - As of January 23, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 37.34 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 4.49% [79]