工业硅&多晶硅周报：工业硅延续震荡；多晶硅成交清淡，观望为主-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon has potential for improved supply - demand, but prices are expected to fluctuate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to large - factory production cuts and downstream production adjustment rhythms [16] - For polysilicon, the current "anti - involution" expectation is unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to terminal demand feedback and policy adjustments [18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Demand: Polysilicon weekly output was 20,400 tons, continuing to decline. DMC output was 42,900 tons, a decrease of 700 tons. From January to December, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 19.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55%. From January to December, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 708,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94% [14] - Inventory: As of January 23, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 517,800 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons. Factory inventory was 262,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; market inventory was 191,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 64,900 tons, an increase of 8,400 tons [14] - Price and Cost: As of January 23, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. The cost in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9,720.00 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 8,960.00 yuan/ton [15] - Supply: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons [15] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon: As of January 23, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygenated) had a premium of 380 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 4.13%; the 421 had a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 0.34% [23] - Polysilicon: As of January 23, 2026, the average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 54 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.85 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 53.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.1 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 50,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 3,280 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 6.07% [26] 3.3 Industrial Silicon - Total Output: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons. In December 2025, the output was 355,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons. From January to December, the cumulative output decreased by 652,300 tons or 13.86% year - on - year [31] - Output in Main Production Areas: The report provides historical output data of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu [33][35][38] - Production Cost: As of January 23, 2026, the electricity price in main production areas was unchanged, and the silicon stone price was stable. The silicon coal price in Xinjiang decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9,720.00 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 8,960.00 yuan/ton [43][46] - Visible Inventory: As of January 23, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 517,800 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons. Factory inventory was 262,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; market inventory was 191,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 64,900 tons, an increase of 8,400 tons [49] 3.4 Polysilicon - Output: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 20,400 tons, continuing to decline. In December, the output was 115,500 tons, an increase of 900 tons. From January to December, the cumulative output was 1.3052 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.46% [54] - Capacity Utilization and Scheduling: In December, the capacity utilization rate of polysilicon was 42.23%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points. It is expected that the output in January will be 107,800 tons, continuing to decline [57] - Inventory: As of January 23, 2026, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 320,800 tons, and the SMM - caliber inventory was 330,000 tons [60] - Cost and Profit: As of January 23, 2026, the production cost of polysilicon was 43,372.74 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 11,074.63 yuan/ton [63] - Silicon Wafer: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of silicon wafers was 10.86 GW, a slight increase. In December, the output was 43.9 GW, a decrease of 10.47 GW. From January to December, the cumulative output was 647.09 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.46%. The inventory was 26.78 GW, an increase. It is predicted that the output in January will be 45.2 GW, basically unchanged [66][69] - Solar Cell: In December, the output of solar cells was 46.76 GW, a decrease of 8.85 GW. The capacity utilization rate was 47.11%, a decrease of 8.93 percentage points. From January to December, the cumulative output was 669.48 GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.95%. As of January 23, 2026, the inventory was 8.54 GW, a decrease. It is expected that the output in January will be 39.36 GW, a significant decrease [75][78] - Solar Module: In December, the output of solar modules was 38.7 GW, a decrease of 8.2 GW. The capacity utilization rate was 37.57%, a decrease of 8.14 percentage points. From January to December, the cumulative output was 563.2 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. As of January 23, 2026, the inventory was 27.2 GW, a decrease. It is expected that the output in January will be 32.47 GW, a decrease [83][86] 3.5 Organic Silicon - Output: As of January 23, 2026, the DMC output was 42,900 tons, a decrease of 700 tons. In December, the output was 204,800 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons. From January to December, the cumulative output was 2.477 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93% [93] - Price and Profit: As of January 23, 2026, the average price of organic silicon was 13,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The DMC gross profit was 1,971.88 yuan/ton [96] - Inventory: As of January 23, 2026, the DMC inventory was 42,400 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [100] 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - Aluminum Alloy: As of January 23, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 24,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 24,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton. From January to December, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 19.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 59.3% [106][109] - Exports: From January to December, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 708,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94% [112]