鸡蛋周报：反弹抛空-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. Near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly, but the overall supply is still abundant. As the demand side is about to meet expectations, near - month contracts with post - festival attributes may mainly fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end has a long - term positive expectation due to peak production capacity, but after early profit, the implementation path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after over - valuation [11][12] - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see or range - trading approach for near - month contracts, and short - selling on rebounds for the 05 - 07 contracts [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Last week, domestic egg prices were generally strong. Supported by Spring Festival stocking demand, traders' purchasing enthusiasm increased, the shipping speed in the production areas accelerated, and supply decreased. The market supply - demand relationship continued to tighten, supporting the egg price increase. There was a reduction in culled chickens during the week, and the chicken age rebounded. However, as egg prices reached a phased high, some areas' egg prices may decline slightly [11] - Replenishment and Culling: In December, the replenishment increased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, with a year - on - year decline of 13.9%. The replenishment sentiment continued to be sluggish, but with the improvement of market expectations, the chick price started to rise, indicating a slight improvement. Due to the previous low egg prices and continuous breeding losses, culling chickens increased, leading to a decline in chicken age. During the pre - Spring Festival stocking season, egg prices rose more than expected, and the breeding end returned to profitability, slowing down culling, and the chicken age stopped falling and rebounded to 490 days [11] - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, lower than the previous value and slightly lower than expected. The main reasons were the gradual decline in newly - laid hens and the higher - than - expected culling of chickens. However, the absolute quantity was still large, with a month - on - month decrease of 80 million compared to November and a year - on - year increase of 5% compared to 1.28 billion in December last year. It is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, dropping further to 1.286 billion by May next year, with a decline of 4.3%. The relative supply will gradually decrease, but the absolute supply is still relatively high [11] - Demand Side: As the Spring Festival approaches, the shipping speed in the downstream market continues to improve. However, as prices reach a high level, and with migrant workers returning home and external sales gradually turning into domestic sales, some traders' attitudes have become more cautious, and the purchase volume may decrease. The egg demand this week may first increase and then decrease [11] - Trading Strategy: Near - month contracts: wait - and - see or range - trading approach; 05 - 07 contracts: short - selling on rebounds, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 1.5 months, driven by inventory, spot, and seasonality, with a two - star recommendation [13] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Spot Trend: Last week, domestic egg prices were generally strong, supported by Spring Festival stocking demand. The supply - demand relationship tightened, and egg prices rose. Some areas' egg prices may decline slightly as they reach a high level. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.3 yuan to 3.5 yuan per catty, and in Guantao, it increased by 0.23 yuan to 3.56 yuan per catty [20] - Basis and Spread: Affected by the spot price increase, the basis has been significantly repaired. After the spot price rebounded, the near - month contracts were stronger, and the spread was more favorable for positive arbitrage [23] - Culled Chicken Price: As egg prices rebounded from a low level and breeding became profitable, farmers were reluctant to sell, and the culled chicken price and chicken age rebounded [26] - Chick and Pullet Price: With the improvement of market expectations, the chick price has started to rise [33] 3.3. Supply Side - Laying Hen Replenishment: In December, the replenishment increased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, with a year - on - year decline of 13.9%. The replenishment sentiment has improved slightly [33] - Culled Chicken Slaughter: Due to previous low egg prices and losses, culling chickens increased, and the chicken age declined. During the pre - Spring Festival stocking season, egg prices rose, and culling slowed down, with the chicken age rebounding to 490 days [36] - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, lower than expected. It is expected to gradually decline in the future, dropping to 1.286 billion by May next year, but the absolute supply is still high [38][41] 3.4. Demand Side - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream shipping speed is improving, but as prices rise and sales channels change, some traders are more cautious, and egg demand may first increase and then decrease this week [46] 3.5. Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and rising month - on - month. After the spot price increase, the breeding profit has clearly recovered to the normal seasonal level [51] 3.6. Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56]