铝周报：情绪面支撑，高位运行-20260124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Europe once suppressed market sentiment, but then the sentiment eased. SHFE aluminum rose 1.4% this week, and LME aluminum rose 0.9%. Currently, domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories continue to accumulate, and high prices still suppress downstream demand. However, in the context of the off - season, this does not constitute a major negative for prices. There was concentrated delivery of LME aluminum, but the inventory remained at a relatively low level. Coupled with the high premium of US aluminum spot, the support for aluminum prices remains strong. Driven by the relatively loose policy environment at home and abroad and the continuous record - high of precious metals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is expected to be 3,120 - 3,220 US dollars/ton [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply Side: As of the end of December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 4,459.8 million tons, with a 1.9% year - on - year increase in production in December. January's production is expected to increase month - on - month. In December, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, a 3.6% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year increase. The domestic molten aluminum ratio in December 2025 decreased by 0.8% month - on - month and is expected to decline further in January [12] - Inventory & Spot: According to MYSTEEL data, on Thursday this week, the aluminum ingot inventory was 768,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday. The bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The total aluminum bar inventory was 229,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last Thursday. The global LME aluminum inventory was 507,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The spot basis of domestic East China aluminum ingots strengthened, and the LME market's Cash/3M changed from premium to discount [12] - Imports and Exports: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a 29.5% month - on - month and 17.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, an 18.8% year - on - year increase. In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a 4.4% month - on - month decrease; the cumulative exports from January to December were 6.134 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year decrease. Recently, the spot import loss of SHFE aluminum has narrowed [12] - Demand Side: According to SMM research, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing this week increased by 0.7% to 60.9% compared with last week. Among them, the operating rates of aluminum cables and aluminum profiles rebounded month - on - month, while those of primary aluminum alloys, aluminum sheets and strips, and aluminum foils remained flat. In terms of demand, there is a seasonal recovery in food packaging foils and pharmaceutical foils before the Spring Festival, and orders from sub - sectors such as photovoltaics, automobiles, and batteries provide support. However, high aluminum prices continue to suppress the terminal's purchasing willingness, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: SHFE aluminum rose 1.4% to 24,290 yuan/ton this week (as of Friday afternoon's closing), and LME aluminum rose 0.9% to 3,173.5 US dollars/ton [23] - Term Spread: The contango of SHFE aluminum's first - to - third contract narrowed compared with last week [29] - Spot Basis: The discounts in East China, South China, and Central China narrowed compared with last week. The Central China spot was relatively strong. The LME aluminum Cash/3M changed from premium to discount [33][40][42] 3. Profit and Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit: The primary aluminum smelting profit increased compared with last week and is at a historical high [52] - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: Aluminum ingot inventory on Thursday this week was 768,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday. The bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The total aluminum bar inventory was 229,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last Thursday. The global LME aluminum inventory was 507,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In December 2025, the proportion of aluminum from India in LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 39.5%, and the total inventory decreased [57][60][65][68] 4. Cost Side - Bauxite Price: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices remained unchanged compared with last week [73] - Alumina Price: Domestic alumina prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with last week, and import prices decreased by 2 US dollars/ton [77] - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: The anode price remained unchanged compared with last week, and the thermal coal price decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with last week [81] 5. Supply Side - Alumina: In December 2025, the monthly alumina production was 8.003 million tons, an increase of 162,000 tons from November and an 8.7% year - on - year increase. The annual alumina production in 2025 was 90.647 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase. The production in January 2026 is expected to remain high [86] - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 4,460.8 million tons. In December, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.9% month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year. The operating capacity in January 2026 is expected to be relatively stable. In December 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, a 3.6% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year increase, and the annual production increased by about 2.8% year - on - year [89] - Molten Aluminum Ratio: This week, the aluminum bar processing fee first increased and then decreased. In December 2025, the domestic molten aluminum ratio decreased by 0.8% month - on - month. The casting volume of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 13.4% month - on - month and decreased by 7.7% year - on - year. This week, the molten aluminum ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline further in January 2026 [92] - Provincial Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production in each province increased month - on - month compared with November [97] 6. Demand Side - Aluminum Products Production and Outbound Volume: In December 2025, China's aluminum products production was 6.136 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year increase; the cumulative production from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year decrease. As of January 19, 2026, the daily outbound volume of aluminum ingots was 124,000 tons, an increase from last week [101] - Downstream Operating Rate: In December 2025, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets and strips decreased month - on - month, while those of primary aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys widened by 5 yuan/ton to 816 yuan/ton [107][110][113] - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the production schedule of household air conditioners in January 2026 is 18.51 million units, an 11% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year, turning from a decline to an increase year - on - year; the production schedule of refrigerators is 7.92 million units, a 3.6% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines is 8.1 million units, a 1.8% slight decrease compared with the actual production in the same period last year. In December 2025, the real - estate data continued to be weak, and the production and sales of automobiles weakened marginally. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules in January 2026 is expected to improve [117] 7. Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum Imports: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a 29.5% month - on - month and 17.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, an 18.8% year - on - year increase. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots narrowed [122] - Aluminum Ingot Import Sources: In December 2025, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., with the import volume from Russia increasing to 76% [125] - Aluminum Products Exports and Recycled Aluminum Imports: In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a 4.4% month - on - month decrease; the cumulative exports from January to December were 6.134 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, the recycled aluminum imports were 194,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative imports from January to December were 2.015 million tons, a 13.1% year - on - year increase [128] - Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports: In December 2025, China's bauxite imports were 14.673 million tons, with the proportion of imported ore at 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to December were 200.532 million tons, a 26.3% year - on - year increase. In December 2025, China's alumina exports were 206,000 tons, a 9.3% year - on - year increase. The cumulative alumina exports from January to December were 2.548 million tons, a 42.7% year - on - year increase [131]