钴锂金属行业周报：上行趋势不改，价格加速走强-20260124

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" for lithium and cobalt core targets, suggesting active positioning in the market [9][14]. Core Insights - The report indicates that lithium prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by futures market sentiment, with potential for short-term price spikes before a possible stabilization due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices [4][9]. - Cobalt prices are expected to remain relatively stable due to tight raw material supply and sustained smelting costs, despite weak terminal demand [4][9]. - The overall trend for lithium prices is upward, with confirmed supply constraints and rising cost bases, while cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs but face weak demand [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Lithium and Cobalt Price Trends - Lithium prices are on an upward trajectory, with futures contracts showing significant weekly increases: Wuxi 2605 contract rose by 23.11% to 179,000 CNY/ton, and Guangxi 2605 contract increased by 24.16% to 181,500 CNY/ton [9][14]. - Lithium concentrate prices reached 2,214 USD/ton, up 234 USD/ton from the previous week [9][14]. - Cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs, with a stable pricing environment despite weak demand leading to lower transaction volumes [9][14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced regulations for the recycling and comprehensive utilization of used power batteries, aiming to enhance the low-carbon competitiveness of battery products [18]. - Tianhua New Energy is planning to issue H shares to enhance its international presence and capital strength [18]. - Yongxing Materials reported progress on its lithium extraction project, achieving full production capacity [18]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - December saw a 4% month-on-month increase in domestic lithium carbonate production and a 2% increase in lithium hydroxide production [19][20]. - The import volume of lithium carbonate rose by 9% month-on-month, while lithium hydroxide exports surged by 88% [35][37]. - The weekly average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.76%, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 1.74% [72][73].