每周高频跟踪 20260124：工业略降温，二手房延续“开门红”-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth week of January, the industrial production rhythm slowed down marginally. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, downstream construction sites gradually halted, and the demand for investment products awaited post - holiday verification [33]. - In terms of inflation, the food price index turned from a decline to an increase, with the increase in pork prices providing a boost [33]. - Regarding exports, the container shipping demand was basically stable, while the container shipping prices continued to weaken marginally [33]. - In the investment field, as construction projects stopped and workers returned home, the apparent demand for investment products continued to decline. The asphalt construction rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the incremental demand for infrastructure awaited verification [33]. - In the real estate sector, the demand for new homes was released in the first week after the New Year's Day holiday, and the off - season characteristics became apparent this week. However, the second - hand housing transactions continued to strengthen, with the year - on - year growth rate turning positive [33]. - For the bond market, the economic data ended smoothly as expected, and the "tail - end" effect of the year - end economic momentum was evident. The strong export provided an incremental boost to production. Looking forward, construction in the building industry was ahead, but investment expenditures were still slow in December, indicating that incremental investment might be more prominent in the first quarter. The concentrated issuance of government bonds and the high level of fiscal deposits might support the investment growth rate in the first quarter. There is a high probability of a "good start" in the data from January to February, and production and investment are expected to maintain a certain level of strength. The fundamentals may have a phased adverse impact on the bond market. Attention should be paid to the performance of PPI under the "good start" of credit and the development of infrastructure [33]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - related - Food prices turned from a decline to an increase. The average wholesale price of pork in China increased by 2.56% week - on - week, with the increase expanding. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.78% and 0.91% week - on - week respectively, turning from a decline to an increase [8]. 3.2 Import and Export - related - The comprehensive container shipping index weakened synchronously. The CCFI index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the SCFI index decreased by 7.4% week - on - week, with the decline expanding. The export container shipping market weakened this week, dragging down the comprehensive index. The demand on the European route declined further, while the North American route was stable, and the market freight rates were adjusted [10]. - The decline of the BDI and CDFI indexes expanded. Although the activity in the international dry bulk shipping market increased and the market improved, the performance of different ship - type markets was differentiated. The demand for coal cargoes was weak, the cargoes in the Southeast Asian market were generally scarce, and the over - supply of ultra - handy ship market capacity continued, suppressing the freight rates [10]. 3.3 Industry - related - Coal prices turned from an increase to a decrease. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 1.7% week - on - week. Although the demand for residential electricity increased due to the cooling in many parts of the country and the daily consumption of coastal power plants rose rapidly, the downstream inventory was still abundant, and the pressure to replenish inventory was not obvious. The supply in the main production areas was generally stable, but snowfall affected coal transportation, and the large - scale coal enterprises' reduction of purchase prices led to a bearish sentiment in the market [11][15]. - The price of rebar turned from an increase to a decrease. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 0.7% week - on - week. The off - season characteristics of winter demand were obvious, outdoor construction gradually stopped, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, both factory and social inventories increased, the downstream demand weakened seasonally, and the profit recovery of steel mills was slow [15]. - The asphalt construction rate decreased month - on - month. This week, the construction rate of asphalt plants decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8%, which was still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Affected by the cooling and precipitation weather, the terminal construction demand further declined. The demand in South China was stable, while the demand in other regions dropped to a low level [15]. - Copper prices turned from an increase to a decrease. The average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market decreased by 2.1% week - on - week, ending the continuous increase. Geopolitical factors in Greenland led to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment, causing a decline in risk assets such as non - ferrous metals and US stocks. Then, the framework agreement reached between the US and NATO at the Davos Forum eased the tense expectations, and copper prices recovered slightly [17]. - The decline of glass futures expanded. The spot price of glass was generally stable, with some manufacturers adjusting their quotes up or down. The overall trading was slightly weaker than before. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Affected by weather factors, the production and sales were differentiated among regions, and the industry inventory increased slightly. As the Spring Festival approached, manufacturers were more willing to sell, and the glass price maintained a volatile trend [17]. 3.4 Investment - related - Cement prices continued to decline. The weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, with the decline narrowing. Affected by the cooling and precipitation weather and the approaching Spring Festival, most construction sites ended early, workers returned home one after another, the terminal demand decreased significantly, and some enterprises in certain regions did not actually implement price increases, so the cement price continued to be under downward pressure [20]. - The transaction volume of new homes decreased slightly. From January 16th to January 22nd, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.164 million square meters, a decrease of 10.55% week - on - week and a year - on - year decrease of 38%, with the decline expanding. The demand for home purchases during the New Year's Day holiday was released with a lag, and then the off - season effect of the new home market at the beginning of the year became apparent, and the transactions decreased slightly [25]. - The transaction volume of second - hand homes continued to increase. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand homes increased by 14.3% week - on - week, maintaining an upward trend. The year - on - year growth rate turned positive to 14%, showing strong performance. Currently, the transaction volume of second - hand homes in cities such as Shanghai has increased, and the decline in prices has narrowed. The implementation of the new VAT transaction regulations has, to a certain extent, promoted the early start of the "spring market," but its sustainability remains to be observed [25]. 3.5 Consumption - related - From January 1st to January 28th, the retail sales of passenger cars maintained negative growth year - on - year. The retail sales of the passenger car market were 679,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 28% and a month - on - month decrease of 37%. The early Spring Festival last year and the concentrated pre - holiday car purchases led to a high base, resulting in a weak year - on - year retail sales in January [27]. - The increase in oil prices expanded. As of January 23rd, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both increased by about 2.7% week - on - week, with the increase expanding. Tensions in the geopolitical situation in Greenland and concerns about the tightening of crude oil supply in Kazakhstan continued to support oil prices [27].