汽车行业点评：车企一季报有挑战，建议关注三条主线机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [3]. Core Insights - The automotive market in the first quarter faces uncertainties, with upstream cost pressures challenging the performance of automakers' quarterly reports. The retail sales of passenger vehicles in China are projected to reach 23.744 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1]. - The domestic automotive market is transitioning with policy changes, including a shift in the new energy vehicle purchase tax from full exemption to a 50% reduction, which may lead to consumer hesitation. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to experience pressure on automotive consumption due to these factors [1]. - The focus for 2026 is on "quality improvement" in the automotive sector, with policies favoring mid-to-high-end market models to alleviate low-level price competition. The total automotive market growth is expected to slow down, with a projected increase of only 1% year-on-year [1]. - Overseas markets are anticipated to stabilize automakers' sales and profits in 2026, with companies like BYD and Geely planning significant growth in international sales. BYD expects to sell 1.5 million units overseas, while Geely aims for a 50%-80% increase in its overseas sales [1]. - The automotive industry is witnessing a transformation in business models due to advancements in technology, particularly in intelligent driving and robotics. The commercial viability of L3 autonomous driving is expected to progress significantly by 2026, with companies like Tesla and Xpeng leading the charge [2]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles are expected to be around 1.8 million units in January 2026, a decrease of 20.4% month-on-month, with new energy vehicle sales reaching approximately 800,000 units, achieving a penetration rate of 44.4% [1]. - The total automotive sales in China for 2026 are projected to be 34.75 million units, including 7.4 million for export, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 1% [1]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The automotive market is currently in a transitional phase with policy adjustments, particularly regarding the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement program, which is expected to support consumption in 2026 [1]. - The focus on "quality improvement" in 2026 aims to shift consumer demand towards higher-end models, reducing the prevalence of price wars in the industry [1]. Investment Opportunities - Three main investment opportunities are identified for 2026: 1. Overseas expansion, focusing on companies with strong international market foundations such as Chery, Great Wall, BYD, SAIC, and Geely [2]. 2. The commercialization of intelligent driving and AI business models, with recommendations for companies like Xpeng, Seres, Li Auto, and Horizon Robotics [2]. 3. High-end market positioning, with a focus on companies like Seres, Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Chery, while also suggesting attention to Jianghuai Automobile [2].