苹果月报：优果率问题短期仍难解决，下方存在一定支撑-20260125

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply - side shows that as of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory is about 6.3232 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The new - season apple cold - storage inventory is lower due to yield decline, but there is sufficient supply at present. The proportion of high - quality apples in cold storage is low, and the cost of merchants after sorting is high. The demand - side indicates that as of January 22, 2026, the cold - storage inventory ratio is about 48.01%, lower than the same period last year. The cold - storage shipment volume during the Spring Festival stocking period has increased slightly, but is slightly lower than last year. The market focus has shifted to the demand side. The Spring Festival delay is beneficial for apple sales in cold storage, and the export volume is expected to increase. However, high fruit prices and the large supply of substitute fruits have impacted apple consumption. The market is expected to be range - bound, and the operation suggestion is to buy low and sell high within the range [1][2][39]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review - In January 2026, the main contract of apple futures, AP2605, showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with a slight rebound currently. The Spring Festival stocking started, and the delay of the Spring Festival increased the stocking time, boosting the market to 10,019 yuan/ton. But the delayed Spring Festival also means a narrower sales window later, and the reduction of long - positions led to the market decline [7]. Part II: Fundamental Analysis of Apples 1. Shortage of High - quality Apples, Difficulty in Solving the Problem of High - quality Fruit Rate in the Short Term - As of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory is about 6.3232 million tons, lower than the same period last year and at the lowest level in the same period of the past seven years. Shandong has about 2.4516 million tons, Shaanxi about 1.7369 million tons, and non - main producing areas about 2.1347 million tons. The yield decline led to a lower inventory, but there is sufficient supply. The proportion of high - quality apples in cold storage is low, and the defective rate of some farmers' apples is high, leading to high sorting costs for merchants [10]. 2. Accelerated Shipping Speed in Producing Areas during the Spring Festival Stocking Period - As of January 22, 2026, the cold - storage inventory ratio is about 48.01%, 2.11 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.77 percentage points this week, and the de - stocking rate was 14.06%. The cold - storage shipment volume in Shandong increased slightly during the Spring Festival stocking period, but was slightly lower than last year. In Shaanxi, the shipment volume is gradually increasing. The delay of the Spring Festival is beneficial for apple sales in cold storage, but attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm and shipping speed [16]. 3. Increase in Fresh Apple Imports in December - China's fresh apple imports are mainly from countries such as New Zealand, the United States, and Chile. In December 2025, the import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 1.168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. The import demand is expected to increase, but the import scale is expected to remain at the current level [20]. 4. Export Peak Season for Fresh Apples, Recovery in Export Volume - China's fresh apples are mainly exported to Southeast Asian countries. In December 2025, the export volume was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The export volume increased significantly due to the Christmas and New Year festivals. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a month - on - month increase in export volume, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand [23]. 5. Impact on Apple Demand due to the Listing of Citrus Fruits - In recent years, the overall fruit harvest and imported fruits have increased market choices. Citrus, which is in season from November to March, is a major winter fruit. Due to the large supply and low price of citrus, it competes with apples during the Spring Festival. In January, fruit prices remained high, and the large supply of substitute fruits such as citrus and cherries at low prices has impacted the terminal consumption demand for apples [26][29]. 6. Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption - Apple prices have obvious seasonality. The months with a high probability of price increase are September, November, and December. September is affected by factors such as inventory clearance, reduced supply of seasonal fruits, and festival stocking. November and December are affected by new - fruit supply and festival effects. The months with a high probability of price decline are April, August, and October. April is affected by the listing of seasonal fruits and inventory quality decline. August is affected by the listing of early - maturing apples and inventory quality issues. October is affected by the large - scale listing of new - season apples and the listing of substitute pears [33][34]. 7. Stable Spot Prices in Producing Areas, Price Differentiation among Different - Quality Apples - As of January 23, 2026, in Shandong Yantai Qixia, the price of high - quality apples is stable. The high - quality apples are priced at 3.7 - 4.0 yuan/jin for 80 above first - and second - grade farmers' slice - red apples, 4.0 - 4.7 yuan/jin for striped apples, 4.2 - 5.2 yuan/jin for merchants' 80 above first - and second - grade apples. The price difference between large and small apples may further widen during the cold - storage sales period, and the futures far - month contracts may remain strong [37]. Part III: Outlook for the Future Market - The supply - side situation is the same as the previous analysis, with low inventory and a low proportion of high - quality apples. The demand - side shows a slightly lower cold - storage shipment volume compared to last year. The market focus is on Spring Festival stocking. The Spring Festival delay and the export peak season are beneficial for demand recovery, but high fruit prices and substitute fruits have impacted consumption. The market is expected to be range - bound, and the operation suggestion is to buy low and sell high within the range [39][40].