纸浆月报：高价难见放量，观察需求恢复情况-20260125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently affected by both supply - and demand - side factors. The market anticipates a tightening of coniferous pulp supply in 2026, while downstream paper mills are focused on cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement, with limited enthusiasm for high - price pulp purchases. Attention should be paid to the demand stabilization and port inventory digestion. After demand stabilizes, a bullish approach can be considered [2][31] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Review - In January 2026, the main pulp futures contract SP2605 rebounded and then fell sharply. The market had already priced in the expected tightening of coniferous pulp supply, but weak downstream demand limited the follow - up increase in actual orders. Currently, the strong performance of the sector has led to a slight rebound in pulp futures [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 December Import Volume Increased Month - on - Month, but 2026 Pulp Import Expected to Tighten - China has a high external dependence on pulp, especially for bleached softwood pulp. In December 2025, China imported 3113000 tons of pulp, with an average unit price of $578.03/ton. The coniferous pulp import volume in December was 895900 tons, up 9.27% month - on - month and 11.51% year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative pulp import volume and amount increased by 4.9% and - 2.4% respectively compared to the previous year. Due to geopolitical factors, imports from North America decreased, but those from Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Uruguay increased. However, large pulp mills are shutting down or reducing capacity, and the coniferous pulp supply in 2026 is expected to tighten significantly [12][13] 3.2.2 European Port Inventory Declined, Overseas Demand May Gradually Recover - In November 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 1.07% month - on - month and 2.75% year - on - year. The European wood pulp port inventory has been declining since September, indicating that the off - season for papermaking demand in Europe and the US has passed. With the Fed in a rate - cut cycle, overseas wood pulp demand may slowly recover. Against the backdrop of the European papermaking industry's merger wave, pulp export quotes are firm. Some large pulp mills will reduce broad - leaf pulp production in 2026, and due to the shortage of wood chips, the price of bleached broad - leaf wood pulp in Asia has been raised [17] 3.2.3 European Inventory Declined, Export Quotes Continued to Rise - Since August, the import price of broad - leaf pulp has rebounded. In January, the export quotes of some pulp products increased. Due to high import dependence, the import cost strongly supports domestic prices. However, the downstream finished paper price has difficulty following the increase, and the spot market price of imported wood pulp is weak. As of January 22, 2026, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 5381 yuan/ton, down 3.08% week - on - week, and that of imported broad - leaf pulp was 4636 yuan/ton, down 1.00% week - on - week [20][21] 3.2.4 Cost Increase Further Suppressed the Profits of Downstream Base Paper Enterprises - The rising prices of imported coniferous and broad - leaf pulp have increased the production costs of downstream paper enterprises, but the increase in base paper prices is weak, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the purchasing willingness for high - price raw materials. As of January 22, 2026, the gross profit margin of Silver Star pulp was below the break - even point. The operating rates of different paper types showed different trends, and overall, downstream paper mills were focused on cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement [24][25] 3.2.5 The Inventory of Major Domestic Ports Increased and Remained at a High Level - As of January 22, 2026, the total pulp inventory in several major ports was 2019800 tons, up 3.37% week - on - week. Generally, the inventory increases during the Chinese New Year due to reduced purchasing demand. However, the postponed Chinese New Year in 2026 may lead to a moderate recovery in domestic demand, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion [28] 3.3 Future Outlook - On the supply side, the 2025 import data shows an increase in volume but a decrease in amount compared to the previous year. In 2026, the coniferous pulp supply is expected to tighten. On the demand side, the operating rates of different paper types vary, and downstream paper mills are focused on cost - reduction. The market has priced in the supply - tightening expectation, but weak demand has limited the price increase. The domestic port inventory is high, and the postponed Chinese New Year may lead to a moderate demand recovery. Attention should be paid to demand stabilization and inventory digestion, and a bullish approach can be considered after demand stabilizes [30][31]