棉花月报：郑棉回归基本面波动下降-20260125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, pre - Spring Festival stocking provides some support with notable low - level buying. However, the significant increase in cotton and cotton yarn imports in December signals strong supply - side negatives, suppressing cotton prices and the textile industry in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton is likely to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [1][24]. - Internationally, the USDA's January cotton supply - demand report is bullish, with global cotton production cut, demand increased, and ending stocks decreased. ICE cotton futures are stabilizing, waiting for clear demand signals, showing an overall bullish adjustment pattern with limited downside [1][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In January, Zhengzhou cotton first soared, then declined, and finally entered a volatile phase. After the positive news of reduced cotton planting area in Xinjiang was realized, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton dropped from 15,095 yuan/ton to 14,430 yuan/ton and then fluctuated [3]. - The international cotton market was volatile at a low level in January. In the early part of the month, the rise of Zhengzhou cotton drove up US cotton, which reached 65.76 cents/pound and then declined with Zhengzhou cotton. The USDA report was bullish, and US cotton export data improved, leading to a relatively strong and volatile US cotton market [3]. 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Tightening Policy Implementation - The previously expected policy of tightening cotton supply in Xinjiang has been implemented. It is expected that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang for the 2026/27 season will be about 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu (over 10% decrease) from the previous year. The policy was detailed at a meeting on January 9, 2026 [5]. - Reasons for the reduction include soaring planting costs (a 96% increase from 424.3 yuan to 830.6 yuan in the past three years), diluted subsidy benefits due to increased production, hindered quality improvement, water resource constraints, and external market challenges [6][7]. - Specific reduction measures target four key areas: low - quality and inefficient planting areas (especially those with yields below 350 kg/mu in southern Xinjiang), groundwater - over - exploited areas, illegally reclaimed land in 2022, and adjustments for 49,000 large - scale contractors to ensure fairness [8]. 3.2.2 Constraints from Price Differences and Textile Profits - In December 2025, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons. High price differences between domestic and international markets led to increased imports. Cotton yarn imports have also increased since September [9]. - Textile profits improved when cotton prices declined from July 2025 but deteriorated as prices rose from November. Current orders cannot support a significant increase in raw material prices [13]. 3.2.3 Weakening Downstream Demand - As of January 16, the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises were 45.8% and 48.7% respectively, down from 49.5% in late November, providing limited support for raw materials [15]. - The finished - product inventory of downstream enterprises has changed. The cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises decreased by 1.4 days to 26.6 days, while the finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises increased by 3.9 days to 36.4 days, reaching the second - highest level in five years [17]. 3.3 International Market Analysis 3.3.1 Bullish Impact of the Monthly Supply - Demand Report - The USDA's January cotton supply - demand report is bullish. Globally, cotton production decreased by over 350,000 bales, with production cuts in India, the US, Argentina, and Turkey, partially offset by a 1 - million - bale increase in China's forecast. Consumption increased by over 300,000 bales, with China's consumption rising but some decreases in Turkey and Nicaragua. Trade volume remained stable, and the 2025/26 global ending stocks were cut by 1.5 million bales, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio dropping below 63% [19]. 3.3.2 Improved US Cotton Exports - In the 2025/26 season, the total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton was 1.6231 million tons, accounting for 62% of the predicted annual export volume (2.61 million tons), and the cumulative export shipment volume was 748,000 tons, accounting for 46% of the total signed volume. - In the week ending January 8, US cotton export sales increased by 77,000 tons, a 247% increase from the previous week and an 89% increase from the four - week average. USDA's weekly signing reached a high for the year, with China signing over 10,000 tons and Vietnam also performing well [22]. 3.4 Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - Domestic cotton is likely to fluctuate before the Spring Festival due to supply - side pressure from imports despite pre - festival stocking support [1][24]. - International cotton shows a bullish adjustment pattern with limited downside as the USDA report is positive [1][24]. - The operational suggestion is to adopt a band - trading strategy for Zhengzhou cotton [2][25]