南美天气叙事或启动，市场或有上涨机会

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In February, there may be weather - related speculation in South America. CBOT soybeans may be supported at 1000 cents and could rise slightly if the weather situation worsens; otherwise, they will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic soybean meal market may show a situation of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with spot prices stronger than futures prices [2][121]. - For international oils, the implementation of US biodiesel policies in February is crucial for the trend of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil is in a de - stocking cycle and may continue to rise slightly. In the domestic market, the inventory of oils may continue to decline in February, and the market will follow international trends and remain relatively strong before the US soybean oil biodiesel policy is finalized [3][122]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In January, CBOT soybeans oscillated at a low level and closed higher, with a slightly elevated price center. The domestic soybean meal market showed strong spot prices and weak futures prices. International oils oscillated upwards, with US soybean oil leading the rise, and domestic oils followed international trends [7][8]. - The table shows the price changes of major domestic and international oil and oilseed futures in January 2026, including the prices of US soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, Malaysian palm oil, and domestic counterparts, as well as the prices of US crude oil, live pigs, and rapeseed meal [9]. 3.2 Protein Meal 3.2.1 Brazil's Soybean Harvest and Weather - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's soybean production is likely to be a bumper harvest, with various institutions' estimates ranging from 1.77 billion to 1.8 billion tons. The export volume is also increasing, which will squeeze the export share of US soybeans [11][13][16]. - In February, heavy rainfall in central Brazil may affect the soybean harvest progress, and the drought in Argentina may draw market attention. Brazilian soybean premiums may remain firm, and the probability of price - cut promotions is reduced [22][28][29]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The US Department of Agriculture slightly increased the planting area of US soybeans in 2025/26, and the inventory is turning to a loose pattern. In February, US soybean exports may become weak again, while the crushing demand will remain strong, and the inventory may continue to rise [32][36][43]. 3.2.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Market - In February, the supply of domestic soybean meal may be insufficient due to a decrease in imported soybeans, and the demand will be stable, resulting in a stable - to - decreasing inventory. The soybean meal market may show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with spot prices stronger than futures prices. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean meal futures may maintain a wide - range bottom oscillation and may rebound slightly [45][53][66]. 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 US Soybean Oil - In February, multiple US biodiesel policies will be gradually implemented. If the policies exceed expectations, US soybean oil may continue to strengthen; otherwise, it may fall from a high level [79]. 3.3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil - The production of Malaysian palm oil is in a decreasing cycle, and exports have improved due to the approaching Ramadan in India. The de - stocking cycle has begun, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. Indonesia is still promoting the B50 biodiesel plan, which can ease the market's pessimistic sentiment [80][85][90]. 3.3.3 Domestic Oil Market - In February, the inventory of domestic oils may continue to decline. The inventory of soybean oil will decrease significantly due to insufficient imported soybeans and increased pre - holiday stocking demand, and the inventory of palm oil will decline due to a decrease in imports. The inventory of rapeseed oil may improve marginally. The domestic oil market will follow international trends and remain relatively strong before the US soybean oil biodiesel policy is finalized [96][101][119]. 3.4 Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - For protein meal, international factors such as South American weather and US soybean supply and demand, as well as domestic factors such as imported soybean arrivals and soybean meal inventory, will affect the market. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean meal futures may maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern and may rebound slightly [121]. - For oils, international factors such as US biodiesel policies and the de - stocking of Malaysian palm oil, as well as domestic factors such as oil inventory changes, will affect the market. The domestic oil market will follow international trends and remain relatively strong before the US soybean oil biodiesel policy is finalized [122]. - Operationally, adopt a strategy of buying on dips for soybean meal and oils, as there are opportunities for staged price increases. Alternatively, buy deep - out - of - the - money call options or sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [122].