白糖月报：上方压制明显，郑糖偏弱运行-20260125

Report Summary - Report Title: Guoxin Futures Sugar Monthly Report - Report Date: January 25, 2026 - Report Analyst: Hou Yating 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - International Market: The supply - surplus situation caused by the significant increase in Indian sugar production dominates the short - term trend. The support from Brazil's inventory reduction and strong exports is limited. The international sugar price is likely to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2][18]. - Domestic Market: The concentrated listing of new sugar, unexpected high imports, and weak demand lead to prominent inventory pressure. With multiple factors in play, there is insufficient upward driving force. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar futures will mainly oscillate within a range [2][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: In January, the highest point of the main Zhengzhou sugar futures contract reached 5,313 yuan/ton. Supported by pre - Spring Festival stocking, the price rose to the high point but failed to stay above 5,300 yuan/ton. Subsequently, due to the concentrated listing of new sugar, increased imports, and the drag of international sugar prices, the price dropped to a low level. Overall, it oscillated within a range with insufficient upward driving force [5]. - International Sugar Price: In January, the international sugar price oscillated at a low level. The expectation of supply surplus caused by the unexpectedly large increase in Indian production and rising export expectations dominated the trend. The lowest price reached 14.41 cents/pound. After hitting the bottom, it rebounded, but later fell again under the influence of the global supply - surplus pattern and the speculative short - selling sentiment [5]. 3.2. International Market Analysis - Brazil: South Brazilian sugar mills have entered the end of the crushing season. The reduction of new - season sugar supply has accelerated the inventory reduction process. As of December 15, the industrial sugar inventory in the central - southern region was 8.09 million tons, a significant 22% decrease from the previous month and a slight 2% decrease year - on - year. The supply is gradually tightening. On the export side, as of January 14, the total amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports climbed to 1.6629 million tons, an increase from the previous week. Since mid - December, the shipping bookings of raw sugar in the central - southern region have remained stable, indicating strong demand [7]. - India: As of January 15, 2026, 519 sugar mills in India had cumulatively crushed 176 million tons of sugarcane this season, compared with 148 million tons in the same period last year; the sugar production was 15.885 million tons, higher than 13.06 million tons in the same period last year; the average sugar yield was 9.01%, a 0.21 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The NFCSF expects the total sugar production this season to be 35 million tons. After converting about 3.5 million tons to ethanol according to the first - phase ethanol distribution plan, the net production will be 31.5 million tons. The domestic consumption is expected to be 29 million tons. With the initial inventory of 5 million tons, the inventory at the end of this season is expected to be about 7.5 million tons [10]. 3.3. Domestic Market Analysis - Inventory and Sales: As of December 31, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, one less than the previous year. The cumulative amount of crushed sugarcane was 16.2303 million tons, a decrease of 5.2515 million tons year - on - year; the sugar production was 1.9419 million tons, a decrease of 0.8095 million tons year - on - year; the mixed sugar yield was 11.96%, a 0.85 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year; the cumulative sugar sales was 0.8848 million tons, a decrease of 0.7474 million tons year - on - year. In December alone, the sugar production was 1.808 million tons, a decrease of 0.431 million tons year - on - year; the sugar sales was 0.7954 million tons, a decrease of 0.5518 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative industrial inventory was 1.0571 million tons, a decrease of 0.0621 million tons year - on - year. In the same period, Yunnan had cumulatively sold 0.2814 million tons of new sugar, an increase of 0.0143 million tons compared with the same period last year. The sugar sales rate was 71.72%, a 9.98 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The single - month sugar sales was 0.2491 million tons, an increase of 0.0147 million tons compared with the same period last year. The industrial inventory was 0.1109 million tons, an increase of 0.0511 million tons compared with the same period last year. These data reflect the current situation of the domestic sugar market: the expected production increase has been realized, the imported sugar has supplemented the supply, the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is prominent [13]. - Imports: In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 140,000 tons from the previous month and 190,000 tons year - on - year. From January to December 2025, China cumulatively imported 4.92 million tons of sugar, an increase of 0.57 million tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar import was 1.77 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons year - on - year. The market expected a tightening of the import quota in 2025, but the annual data did not confirm this, and the import volume exceeded market expectations. In December 2025, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 120,800 tons year - on - year. From January to December 2025, China imported a total of 1.1888 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 1.1879 million tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, China imported a total of 299,600 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 339,500 tons year - on - year. After the tightening of the syrup import policy, the import of Thai syrup has significantly decreased [15]. 3.4. Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - International Market: Operate based on the range - oscillation concept, and make arrangements around the 14.0 - 15.3 cents/pound range. Pay attention to the implementation of India's export policy [2][18]. - Domestic Market: Adopt a short - selling strategy when the price is high. Place short orders based on the resistance level of 5,300 yuan/ton. Also, pay attention to the latest changes in the import policy. The operation suggestion for Zhengzhou sugar futures is mainly short - term trading [2][18][19]