中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报-20260125

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the PVC industry, the upstream PVC price slightly strengthened, the caustic soda price weakened, and the comprehensive profit slightly worsened. The upstream operating rate slightly increased, and the price rose. Mid - stream traders were cautious, mainly using the spot - futures arbitrage strategy. The export volume slightly improved, and there was some rush for exports. The downstream operating rate was weak, and the downstream was not willing to chase the rising price. The strategy suggested paying attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities, and the short - term trend might continue to be strong. For the caustic soda industry, the upstream inventory slightly increased, the production remained high, and some manufacturers started to cut prices. Mid - stream traders were cautious and not willing to take delivery. The main alumina procurement price slightly decreased, and the delivery volume remained high. The short - term strategy for caustic soda was to exit short positions and gradually shift to a volatile and bullish mindset [10][107]. Summary by Directory 1. PVC Market 1.1 PVC Supply and Demand - This week, the total PVC production was 48.21 tons, a slight decrease from last week. Next week, due to some temporary device overhauls, production is expected to decrease slightly. The export volume remained stable at 5,750 tons per week. The apparent demand this week was 417,300 tons, lower than expected, and next week's expected apparent demand is 449,100 tons. The old - sample inventory increased by 12,300 tons this week, and it is expected to slightly decrease if current production and demand continue. However, considering the actual demand situation, there is no strong driving force for significant inventory reduction, and there may even be continued inventory accumulation [6]. 1.2 PVC Price and Basis - The spot price of PVC showed some fluctuations. The basis of PVC showed a strengthening trend, and the monthly spread also changed. For example, the 9 - 1 monthly spread decreased from 413 to - 100, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread increased from - 293 to 214 [8][17][23]. 1.3 PVC Supply and Production Profit - The production profit of PVC varied by production method. The import ethylene - based method had a profit increase of 165 yuan/ton, while the Northwest integrated method remained unchanged at - 887 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong decreased by 93 yuan/ton [8]. 1.4 PVC Import and Export - The export profit of PVC improved slightly. The theoretical export profit to India increased from - 45 to 340 yuan/ton, and the theoretical export profit to Southeast Asia increased from 153 to 340 yuan/ton [8]. 1.5 PVC Demand - The downstream operating rate of PVC was weak, and after the price rebounded, the downstream was not willing to chase the rising price [10]. 1.6 PVC Inventory - The upstream inventory of PVC slightly decreased by 270 tons, and the mid - stream inventory increased. The new - sample mid - stream trader inventory increased by 33,400 tons this week [6]. 2. Caustic Soda Market 2.1 Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - This week, the total production of caustic soda was 871,800 tons, a slight increase from last week. The import and export volumes remained stable, with an import volume of 200 tons per week and an export volume of 73,000 tons per week. The apparent demand this week was 801,300 tons, and next week's expected apparent demand is 775,300 tons. The national inventory slightly decreased this week, but it is expected to slightly increase next week [101]. 2.2 Caustic Soda Price and Basis - The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong weakened. The basis of caustic soda showed a weakening trend, and the monthly spread also changed. For example, the 1 - 5 monthly spread increased from - 249 to 237 [103][105][116][117][121]. 2.3 Caustic Soda Supply and Production Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong decreased by 93 yuan/ton. The profit of the Shandong caustic soda + liquid chlorine combination decreased from 78 to - 68 yuan/ton [105]. 2.4 Caustic Soda Inventory - The total inventory of caustic soda (in 100% equivalent) decreased by 230 tons this week, and it is expected to increase next week. The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong decreased by 250 tons, and the flake caustic soda inventory decreased by 110 tons [101]. 2.5 Caustic Soda Downstream - The main alumina procurement price slightly decreased, and the delivery volume remained high. The operating rate of downstream industries such as alumina, printing and dyeing, and viscose staple fiber showed different trends [107][153][157][160].