宏观和大类资产配置周报：本周沪深300指数下跌0.62%

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.62% this week, while the CSI 300 index futures decreased by 0.10%[1] - Coking coal futures dropped by 3.38%, and iron ore main contracts fell by 2.82% this week[1] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.83%, with active 10-year government bond futures rising by 0.12%[1] Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth target of 5% for 2025 was achieved despite challenges from U.S. tariff policies, leading to weak domestic demand and low industrial profits[2] - In 2026, macroeconomic policies will focus on optimizing existing growth strategies and increasing institutional openness to stabilize the economy[2] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to be no less than 4%[2] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation order is: equities > commodities > bonds > cash[3] - Stocks are currently overweight, with a focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies[4] - Bonds are underweight due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship, with yields expected to fluctuate around 2%[4] Key Economic Indicators - By the end of 2025, China's population was approximately 1.40489 billion, with a net decrease of 3.39 million people year-on-year[5] - The service sector's contribution to GDP increased to 57.7%, with retail sales growing by 3.7% year-on-year[24]