东方证券煤炭行业周报（20260119-20260125）：煤炭行业边际利多因素正在逐渐累积-20260125

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry's long-term fundamentals are expected to improve, with a focus on the value of sector allocation. Despite concerns about seasonal price trends in the coal industry from March to May, domestic capacity is expected to be reduced, and the quantity of imported coal is likely to shrink. It is believed that the bottom of the coal sector's long-term cycle has been established, and a long-term upward trend is anticipated, suggesting to accumulate positions in the coal sector during dips [3][57]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Fundamentals - Marginally positive factors for the coal industry are accumulating, with expectations of improved profitability in downstream sectors such as chemicals, steel, and cement, which saw index increases of 7.3%, 6.5%, and 6.5% respectively [8] - Imported coal prices have risen for four consecutive weeks since the beginning of the year, with Indonesian Kalimantan thermal coal (4200 kcal) priced at $47.1 per ton, up 4.9% year-to-date, and Australian Newcastle thermal coal (5500 kcal) at $73.4 per ton, up 2.2% year-to-date [8] - The CBCFI coastal coal transportation price index is on an upward trend, currently at 681 points, up 5.1% week-on-week, indicating strong demand for coal shipping [8] Supply and Demand - The average temperature in 28 major cities has significantly decreased, leading to a record high in electricity load for winter. The national electricity load reached 1.417 billion kilowatts on January 20, breaking the 1 billion kilowatt mark for the first time in winter [8] - Independent coking plants are in a seasonal restocking phase, with coking coal inventory at 9.95 million tons, up 4.2% week-on-week. However, sample steel mills show low restocking enthusiasm due to weak production performance [8][29] - Domestic coal prices have declined, while overseas coal prices have increased [9] Price Comparisons and Valuation - The coal sector's relative valuation is at historical low levels, with the coal mining index up 3.8% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which is up 1.6% [8] - As of January 23, 2026, the CITIC coal industry index PB is 1.46 times, with a ratio of 0.75 times compared to the PB of the A-share market, indicating that the current coal sector valuation is at historical low levels [8]