“大财政”系列之二：美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？

Market Overview - On January 20, 2026, a "triple kill" occurred in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.3% and the Nasdaq dropping by 2.39%[3][19] - The U.S. dollar weakened to 98.54, while gold prices increased to $4,748, reflecting a flight to safety amid market turmoil[3][19] Key Triggers - The market panic was driven by three main factors: U.S.-Europe Greenland dispute raising tariff concerns, a Danish pension fund's exit from U.S. Treasury investments, and political instability in Japan leading to increased bond sell-off risks[3][19] - Trump's statements at the Davos Forum on January 21 helped temporarily ease market fears by ruling out military action over Greenland and postponing tariffs[3][22] Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to rise, with the deficit rate expected to reach 6.8% in 2026, up from 6.0% in 2025, driven by increased defense spending and tax cuts[4][24][25] - The total tax reduction for 2026 is estimated at $396 billion, a 47.7% increase from 2025, with personal tax cuts amounting to $275 billion and corporate tax cuts of $121 billion[4][25] Long-term Risks - The political motivation for fiscal tightening has weakened, with both parties agreeing on the need for fiscal expansion, leading to a potential increase in the deficit regardless of election outcomes[4][28] - Tariff risks and geopolitical tensions are expected to persist, with Trump's administration potentially expanding the use of tariffs as a tool for economic policy[4][34] Financial Measures - Trump may implement "structural" financial repression measures to lower real interest rates, but expectations for the Federal Reserve to adopt Yield Curve Control (YCC) are low due to concerns over central bank independence[5][41][45] - The average daily trading volume of U.S. Treasuries reached $1.047 trillion, significantly higher than that of Japanese bonds, indicating a robust market despite rising yields[5][47]