短线延续反弹，长期依旧偏空

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for government bonds is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term bond market will continue to rebound, but the long - term outlook remains bearish. The rebound is not a reversal, and the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. After the market's upward momentum fades, short - selling offers a relatively high cost - effectiveness [2][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From January 19th to January 25th, government bond futures continued to rebound. The settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year government bond futures contracts on January 23rd were 102.416, 105.875, 108.200, and 112.290 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.016, +0.070, +0.135, and +1.120 yuan compared to last weekend [1][8] 3.1.2 Next Week's Views - The bond market rebound may not be over. Next week, the news will be calm, government bond supply will decrease, and the central bank will support the capital market. The stock market has an upward impetus, but the regulatory authorities' intention to maintain a slow - bull market is expected to remain unchanged. However, the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged [2][10][11] - Strategies: 1) For the single - side strategy, short - term bond market rebounds, and short - selling is more cost - effective after the market's upward momentum fades. 2) For short - hedging, the short - term long - buying momentum is strong, so short - hedging should temporarily stay on the sidelines. 3) For the curve strategy, TL is greatly affected by trading desks. When it falls, 3T - TL tends to rise, and when it rises, 3T - TL tends to fall [2][12][13] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 58 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 9340.70 billion yuan and a net financing of 7349.60 billion yuan, an increase of 4824.79 billion yuan and 9275.00 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 26 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 2315.70 billion yuan and a net financing of 2031.60 billion yuan, an increase of 1567.29 billion yuan and 1375.90 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 520 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 5894.90 billion yuan and a net financing of - 1166.80 billion yuan, an increase of 366.10 billion yuan and 1389.0 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [14][16][17] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Most government bond yields declined. As of January 23rd, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.39%, 1.60%, 1.83%, and 2.29% respectively, with changes of - 1.19, - 1.01, - 1.12, and - 1.50 basis points compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads all narrowed [21][22][23] 3.3 Government Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of January 23rd, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year government bond futures contracts were 102.416, 105.875, 108.200, and 112.290 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.016, +0.070, +0.135, and +1.120 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures this week were 27240, 58093, 67712, and 103829 lots respectively, with changes of - 9176, - 6829, - 7915, and - 17930 lots compared to last week. The open interests were 77347, 175261, 270419, and 180099 lots respectively, with changes of - 1507, +13469, +16812, and +2905 lots compared to last week [28][29][32] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - Recently, the basis of government bond futures has been oscillating at a low level, and there are no obvious positive arbitrage opportunities. The basis may have the impetus to compress, but the compression space is limited. After the market rebound weakens and tends to oscillate, a short - hedging strategy can be deployed [36] 3.3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - As of January 23rd, the inter - period spreads of the 2603 - 2606 contracts of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were - 0.032, - 0.020, +0.020, and - 0.180 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.000, +0.000, - 0.040, and - 0.080 yuan compared to last weekend [41] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 11810 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 9515 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2295 billion yuan. On Friday, 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured, and the central bank conducted 9000 billion yuan of MLF operations. As of January 23rd, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.54%, 1.49%, 1.40%, and 1.49% respectively, with changes of +2.23, +5.05, +7.10, and +2.10 basis points compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 8.57 trillion yuan, 558.36 billion yuan less than last week, and the overnight proportion was 90.49%, slightly higher than last week [43][44][47] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond oscillated at a high level. As of January 23rd, the US dollar index fell 1.88% to 97.5053 compared to last weekend. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.24%, the same as last weekend. The spread between the 10 - year Chinese and US government bonds was inverted by 240.6 basis points [49][50] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. As of January 23rd, the South China Industrial Products Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3660.83, 7318.26, and 1572.97 points respectively, with changes of +39.19, +99.62, and +30.09 points compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices generally rose. As of January 23rd, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 18.49, 5.67, and 7.88 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of +0.42, +0.13, and - 0.14 yuan/kg compared to last weekend [51][53] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - The bond market rebounds in the short - term and is bearish in the long - term. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of short - selling at high prices [54]