连锁茶饮行业研究：市场扩容持续，供应链铸就头部壁垒

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the chain tea beverage industry, marking it as the first rating for this sector [1]. Core Insights - The market for ready-to-drink beverages is expected to grow significantly due to increased consumption frequency, with a projected market size of approximately 380 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.6% [2][18]. - The competitive landscape is being reshaped by supply chain advantages and product quality, leading to a consolidation of market share among leading brands [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Growth in the Later Stage, Driven by Increased Consumption Frequency - The consumption frequency of ready-to-drink beverages is rising, driven by an expansion of consumption scenarios, including shopping, work, and leisure activities [11][14]. - The market size is projected to grow as the average annual consumption frequency is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.4% from 2024 to 2026, with the market size reaching 380 billion yuan by 2026 [2][18][22]. - The total number of tea beverage stores is increasing, but the growth rate is slowing down, indicating a transition into the later stage of industry growth [24][27]. 2. Supply Chain and Product Power Reshape Competitive Landscape, Strengthening Leading Brands - Leading brands are experiencing steady growth in store numbers and operational efficiency due to their supply chain and product advantages, while smaller brands are being squeezed out due to insufficient supply chain capabilities [3][29]. - The market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with the share of stores held by brands with over 10,000 locations rising from 3% in early 2021 to 10.4% by late 2025 [29][30]. - The competitive dynamics vary by price segment, with high-end brands like Bawang Chaji consolidating their market position, while mid-range segments face intense competition [41][47]. 3. Scale Procurement and Efficient Distribution Create Cost and Quality Barriers - Leading brands leverage scale procurement to establish cost advantages and mitigate risks, while also ensuring product differentiation through deep integration with suppliers [3][38]. - Efficient distribution networks, including cold chain logistics, help maintain product freshness and further enhance cost advantages for leading brands [3][38]. 4. Key Company Analysis: Scale Effects and Store Optimization Drive Leading Brands - Miexue Ice City is expanding aggressively, with over 40,000 stores by 2025, maintaining a growth rate of over 20% [47][50]. - Guming is also showing robust growth, with a projected 13,000 stores by 2025, reflecting a 33% increase [31][36]. - Other brands like Chabaidao and Hushang Ayi are optimizing their store networks to improve efficiency and profitability [41][46].