哈尔斯：行业出口维持高增，制造、品牌共驱成长-20260125

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the export volume of thermal cups in December 2025 continued to grow, with an export scale of 360 million USD (down 15.5% year-on-year) and a sales volume of 117 million units (up 7.4% year-on-year) [3] - The overall export amount and sales volume for the year showed a year-on-year change of -4.5% and +9.3%, respectively [3] - The report indicates that despite pressure on export prices due to U.S. tariffs, the export volume has been steadily increasing, with Amazon sales data showing a cumulative year-on-year growth of over 30.9% for the top 100 thermal cups in the U.S. market [2] - New brands are emerging strongly while mainstream brands are performing steadily, with YETI and Stanley showing modest growth in key markets [2] - The company has established a robust brand presence through value binding with specific customer segments, indicating that the rise of new brands is likely to elevate the industry's ceiling [2] Manufacturing Insights - The global supply share is expected to continue concentrating, with the company having entered the supply chain of well-known overseas brands years ago [3] - Revenue and profit growth for the company in Q1-Q3 2025 were +2.9% and -55.5%, respectively, indicating stable revenue but suppressed profit growth due to factors like increased overseas capacity and domestic brand investments [3] - The company's production capacity in Thailand is expected to enhance profitability, with a continued trend of downstream production transfer [3] Brand Development - The company aims to enhance its brand power through a comprehensive upgrade of its brand center, which includes independent teams for research, production, and sales [4] - The product strategy has shifted to a more aggressive launch schedule, with 40 new products introduced in the first half of 2025 [4] - Marketing strategies include innovative collaborations with popular IPs and a multi-channel distribution network [4] - The company has set ambitious goals, projecting that by 2028, brand revenue will approach that of manufacturing, with high growth expected in OBM (Original Brand Manufacturing) business [4] Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 110 million, 261 million, and 388 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 36.9X, 15.5X, and 10.5X [4]