Guohai Securities·2026-01-25 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates a decrease in risk aversion and a slowdown in inventory accumulation, suggesting a more favorable macroeconomic environment for the aluminum sector [6][10] - The aluminum price is expected to remain volatile at high levels, with a long-term outlook indicating limited supply growth against a backdrop of increasing demand [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 23, 2026, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $3173.5 per ton, up $39.5 from the previous week, marking a 1.3% week-on-week increase and a 20.6% year-on-year increase [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 24290.0 CNY per ton, up 365.0 CNY from the previous week, reflecting a 1.5% week-on-week increase and a 19.6% year-on-year increase [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 24130.0 CNY per ton, up 130.0 CNY week-on-week, representing a 0.5% increase and a 19.5% year-on-year increase [22] 2. Production - In December 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 378.1 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.4 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [55] - The production of alumina in December 2025 was 752.0 million tons, up 8.0 million tons month-on-month and up 2.5% year-on-year [55] 3. Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 743,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 7,000 tons, indicating a slight slowdown in inventory accumulation [7] - The report notes that the overall inventory levels have not peaked, suggesting ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the market [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies highlighted include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yunnan Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2026 [5] - China Hongqiao's stock price was 32.16 CNY with an EPS forecast of 2.77 CNY for 2026, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.6 [5] 5. Demand - The report indicates that downstream demand remains subdued, with only essential purchases being made due to high aluminum prices and a seasonal demand lull [7] - The overall operating rate for aluminum processing was recorded at 60.9%, showing a slight increase but indicating mixed performance across different segments [7]