农林牧渔行业研究：猪价持续承压，看好牧业景气周期

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it implies a cautious outlook on certain segments, particularly in livestock and planting industries, suggesting potential for recovery in the medium to long term [3][4][5][6]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing mixed performance, with the livestock segment facing challenges due to supply-demand imbalances and price pressures, while the planting sector shows signs of stabilization amid potential price increases [3][4][5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on high-quality, low-cost enterprises in the livestock sector, particularly in pig farming, where there is potential for profit recovery as the market stabilizes [3][4][5]. - The planting industry is expected to benefit from government initiatives aimed at increasing crop yields and addressing supply chain disruptions caused by external factors [6][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2923.59 points, with a weekly increase of 0.40%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - As of January 23, the national commodity pig price was 12.97 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 1.49%. The average weight of pigs at market was 128.89 kg, showing a slight increase [22][23]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term due to weak supply and demand, but a potential recovery in the second half of the year is expected as industry capacity reduces [3][4][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 7.50 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 1.19% from the previous week. The report notes that while profits are under pressure, there are signs of improvement in the yellow feather chicken market due to better demand [4][28][33]. 2.3 Livestock - As of January 16, live cattle prices in Shandong were 26.88 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.67% increase week-on-week. The report suggests that beef prices may rise as the market enters a consumption peak [5][37][41]. - The dairy sector is also experiencing a reduction in capacity, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.03 yuan/kg, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [5][41]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices were reported at 2265.71 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.25%. The report indicates that the planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if crop yields decrease significantly [6][43][44]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - As of January 23, feed prices remained stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices showed some upward movement, particularly for shellfish [54][57].