粤开宏观：万亿顺差从何而来？

Trade Surplus Overview - In 2025, China's goods trade surplus reached $118.89 billion, marking a 19.8% increase from 2024[1] - The net export of goods and services contributed 1.64 percentage points to GDP growth, the second highest since 2007[1] Factors Driving Trade Surplus - Strong export resilience, with a 5.5% increase in export scale in 2025[2] - Import growth stagnated, remaining nearly flat due to falling international commodity prices and enhanced domestic supply capabilities[2] Trade Balance by Market - China maintained a trade surplus with 196 out of 249 trading partners, with significant surpluses from developed economies like the US and EU[3] - The trade surplus with the US was $280.4 billion, accounting for 23.6% of China's total trade surplus[3] Trade Surplus Composition - The trade surplus is increasingly diversified, with significant contributions from the EU (24.5%) and ASEAN (23.2%) markets[3] - The surplus is shifting from low-value industrial products to high-end manufacturing, with industrial product surplus growing by 8.3% in 2025[4] Commodity Trade Dynamics - Primary product deficit narrowed to $85.93 billion, while industrial product surplus reached $204.83 billion[4] - The decline in commodity prices led to a 12.6% reduction in the mineral fuel deficit[4] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include escalating global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact trade dynamics[4]