2025 年我国规上工业发电量同比增长 2.2%，寒潮下美国气价周环比大涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utilities industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The power sector is expected to see improved profitability and value re - evaluation after multiple rounds of power supply - demand contradictions. Coal - fired power's peak - shaving value is prominent, electricity prices may rise slightly, and the cost of coal - fired power enterprises is controllable. The performance of power operators is likely to improve significantly. For the natural gas sector, with the decline in upstream gas prices and the recovery of domestic consumption, the urban gas business can achieve stable gross margins and high growth in sales volume. Traders with low - cost long - term contract gas sources and receiving terminal assets may increase profits [5][98] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Performance - As of January 23rd, the utilities sector rose 2.3%, outperforming the market (CSI 300 fell 0.6% to 4,702.50). The top three industries in terms of gains and losses were building materials (9.2%), petroleum and petrochemicals (7.7%), and steel (7.3%), while the bottom three were banks (-2.7%), communications (-2.1%), and non - bank finance (-1.5%) [12] - The power sector rose 1.72%, and the gas sector rose 7.21%. Among sub - industries, thermal power generation rose 2.71%, hydropower generation fell 0.89%, nuclear power generation rose 0.33%, thermal services rose 2.09%, comprehensive power services rose 4.56%, photovoltaic power generation rose 7.21%, and wind power generation rose 2.82% [14] - In the power sector, the top three gainers were Nanwang Energy (16.26%), Shanghai Electric Power (11.95%), and Zhongmin Energy (7.76%); the bottom three were Yangtze Power (-1.96%), Huaneng Power International (-1.47%), and Huaneng Hydropower (-0.87%). In the gas sector, the top three gainers were Zhongtai Co., Ltd. (23.02%), Jiufeng Energy (14.70%), and Furan Energy (13.15%); the bottom three were Shuifa Gas (0.00%), ENN Energy (1.45%), and Dazhong Public Utilities (2.26%) [17] 3.2 Power Industry Data Tracking 3.2.1 Thermal Coal Prices - In January, the annual long - term contract price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) was 684 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. As of January 23rd, the market price of Shanxi - produced thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port was 686 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [23] - As of January 23rd, the pit - mouth price of Shaanxi Yulin thermal lump coal (Q6000) was 770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the pit - mouth price (tax - included) of Datong南郊 coking coal (Q5500) was 626.08 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.82 yuan/ton; the wagon - loading price of Inner Mongolia Dongsheng large - sized clean coal (Q5500) was 564 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [23] - As of January 22nd, the FOB spot price of Newcastle NEWC 5500 kcal thermal coal was 73.55 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 US dollars/ton; the ARA 6000 kcal thermal coal spot price was 101.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.80 US dollars/ton; the Richards Bay thermal coal FOB spot price was 80 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.95 US dollars/ton. As of January 23rd, the Newcastle NEWC index price was 108.4 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.2 US dollars/ton. The ex - warehouse price of Indonesian coal (Q5500) at Guangzhou Port was 731.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.81 yuan/ton; the ex - warehouse price of Australian coal (Q5500) at Guangzhou Port was 737.15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.36 yuan/ton [26] 3.2.2 Thermal Coal Inventory and Power Plant Daily Consumption - As of January 23rd, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 582 tons, a week - on - week increase of 32 tons [30] - As of January 22nd, the coal inventory of 17 inland provinces was 9,010.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 290.3 tons (3.12%); the daily consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 445.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33.7 tons/day (8.18%); the available days were 20.2 days, a decrease of 2.4 days compared to last week [32] - As of January 22nd, the coal inventory of 8 coastal provinces was 3,299.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49.5 tons (1.48%); the daily consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 241.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.9 tons/day (10.97%); the available days were 13.7 days, a decrease of 1.7 days compared to last week [32] 3.2.3 Hydropower Inflow Situation - As of January 23rd, the Three Gorges outbound flow was 9,180 cubic meters per second, a year - on - year increase of 13.05%, and flat week - on - week [45] 3.2.4 Key Power Market Transaction Electricity Prices - In the Guangdong day - ahead spot market, as of January 16th, the weekly average price was 349.15 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 10.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. In the real - time spot market, the weekly average price was 291.58 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.2% [52] - In the Shanxi day - ahead spot market, as of January 22nd, the weekly average price was 377.70 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 253.77% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. In the real - time spot market, the weekly average price was 385.26 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 194.3% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [59] - In the Shandong day - ahead spot market, as of January 18th, the weekly average price was 221.85 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 9.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.4%. In the real - time spot market, the weekly average price was 275.45 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 50.11% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% [60] 3.3 Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking 3.3.1 Domestic and International Natural Gas Prices - As of January 23rd, the national index of LNG ex - factory prices at the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center was 3,992 yuan/ton (about 2.85 yuan/cubic meter), a year - on - year decrease of 7.44% and a month - on - month increase of 3.72%. In November 2025, the average import price of domestic LNG was 490.97 US dollars/ton (about 2.48 yuan/cubic meter), a year - on - year decrease of 17.25% and a month - on - month increase of 2.80%. As of January 23rd, the CIF price of imported LNG in China was 11.32 US dollars/million British thermal units (about 2.93 yuan/cubic meter), a year - on - year decrease of 19.80% and a month - on - month increase of 9.58% [58] - As of January 21st, the European TTF spot price was 13.79 US dollars/million British thermal units, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a week - on - week increase of 21.0%; the US HH spot price was 4.98 US dollars/million British thermal units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a week - on - week increase of 68.8%; the Chinese DES spot price was 10.6 US dollars/million British thermal units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6% and a week - on - week increase of 6.5% [61] 3.3.2 EU Natural Gas Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In the third week of 2026, the EU's natural gas supply was 6.34 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% and a week - on - week increase of 4.6%. Among them, LNG supply was 3.21 billion cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 12.6%, accounting for 50.6% of the natural gas supply; imported pipeline gas was 3.13 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% and a week - on - week decrease of 2.6%. From January to March 2026, the EU's cumulative natural gas supply was 18.28 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 11.2% [65] - In the fourth week of 2026, the EU's natural gas inventory was 54.489 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.60% and a week - on - week decrease of 4.45%. As of January 21st, 2026, the EU's natural gas inventory level was 47.6% [73] - In the third week of 2026, the EU's estimated natural gas consumption was 11.82 billion cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. From January to March 2026, the EU's estimated cumulative natural gas consumption was 33.49 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% [75] 3.3.3 Domestic Natural Gas Supply and Demand - In November 2025, the apparent domestic natural gas consumption was 36.28 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative apparent domestic natural gas consumption was 388 billion cubic meters, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [78] - In December 2025, the domestic natural gas production was 22.98 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The LNG import volume was 8.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% and a month - on - month increase of 22.2%. The PNG import volume was 4.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative domestic natural gas production was 261.89 billion cubic meters, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The cumulative LNG import volume was 68.43 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. The cumulative PNG import volume was 59.43 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.0% [79] 3.4 This Week's Industry News 3.4.1 Power Industry - Related News - In December 2025, the power generation of above - scale industrial enterprises was 858.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. From January to December 2025, it was 9,715.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In December 2025, the decline of thermal power narrowed, and the growth rates of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power generation slowed down [87] - Facing the severe test of winter power supply, the national energy system took multiple measures to ensure stable supply. After winter 2026, the national electricity load increased rapidly, exceeding 1.4 billion kilowatts for the first time on January 20th, reaching 1.417 billion kilowatts and setting three consecutive winter records. The daily electricity consumption also exceeded 30 billion kWh for the first time in winter, reaching 30.47 billion kWh on January 19th [87] 3.4.2 Natural Gas Industry - Related News - From January to December 2025, the natural gas production of above - scale industrial enterprises was 261.9 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. In December, the production was 23 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [88] 3.5 This Week's Important Announcements - Shenergy Co., Ltd.: In 2025, the power generation of its controlled power plants was 57.654 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The on - grid electricity was 55.376 billion kWh, with an average on - grid electricity price of 0.494 yuan/kWh (tax - included). In the fourth quarter of 2025, it added 2.0672 million kilowatts of controlled installed capacity. As of the end of 2025, its controlled installed capacity was 20.6611 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.1% [89] - Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd.: From January to December 2025, its combined power generation was 78.232 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.41%. The on - grid electricity was 74.979 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%. The average on - grid electricity price was 0.58 yuan/kWh. As of the end of December 2025, its controlled installed capacity was 26.3213 million kilowatts, and clean energy accounted for 62.59% of the installed capacity [90] - Hubei Energy Group Co., Ltd.: As of the end of 2025, its total assets were 100.081 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.83%. The attributable net profit was 1.896 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.51% [91] - SDIC Power Holdings Co., Ltd.: From October to December 2025, the power generation of its controlled enterprises was 33.142 billion kWh, and the on - grid electricity was 32.229 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 14.22% and 14.43% respectively. From January to December 2025, the power generation was 158.093 billion kWh, and the on - grid electricity was 154.209 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 8.12% and 8.06% respectively. In the fourth quarter, it added 2.1471 million kilowatts of controlled installed capacity. As of the end of the fourth quarter, its installed controlled capacity was 46.8956 million kilowatts [92] - Guanghui Energy Co., Ltd.: It is estimated that the attributable net profit in 2025 will be between 1.32 billion yuan and 1.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 50.03% - 55.13% [93] - Furan Energy Group Co., Ltd.: In 2025, its natural gas supply was 4.931 billion cubic meters, and its operating revenue was 33.754 billion yuan, a year - on -