商贸零售行业周报：老铺黄金SKP活动开启，关注春节销售超预期催化-20260125

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The total retail sales in China for 2025 reached CNY 501,202 billion, with a year-on-year growth of +3.7%. December's retail sales showed a modest increase of +0.9% [25][34] - The retail sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with service retail outperforming goods retail. Online sales are rebounding, while offline supermarkets, convenience stores, and specialty shops are performing relatively steadily [4][27] - The high-end traditional gold market is expanding, with brands like Laopu Gold gaining traction among high-net-worth consumers, supported by strong sales during promotional events [34][38] Summary by Sections Retail Sector Overview - The retail and social service indices reported increases of 2.16% and 3.20% respectively from January 19 to January 23, 2026, with the retail index ranking 16th among 31 sectors [6][15] - The jewelry sector has shown the highest growth, with an increase of 8.66% in the past week and 11.51% year-to-date [18][20] Consumer Trends - Essential consumer goods are stable, with food and oil products performing particularly well. In contrast, optional consumer goods show mixed results, with cosmetics and jewelry performing better than clothing and home appliances [31][33] - The online retail market for physical goods reached CNY 130,923 billion in 2025, growing by +5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [27][30] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in high-demand sectors driven by emotional consumption themes, particularly in gold and jewelry, with recommendations for brands like Laopu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Tai Fook [7][41] - Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to market changes and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [7][39] - Highlight domestic beauty brands that innovate in emotional value and safety, recommending brands like Mao Ge Ping and Proya [7][39] - Consider differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and expanding chain medical institutions, with recommendations for companies like Meili Tianyuan and Aimeike [7][39]