黑色金属周报：钢厂补库启动，出口政策驱动内化分外-20260125

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable bottom for the steel industry with a profit rate of 40.7% for steel companies, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [1][11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is entering a winter storage phase for raw material replenishment, driven by increased iron water production and rising iron ore import inventories [1][11]. - The domestic steel price gap has decreased by 6.4 yuan, with current losses at 35.1 yuan per ton, indicating pressure on domestic prices due to high export prices [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index increased by 2.7%, outperforming the broader market by 2.4%, influenced by successful negotiations between China Minmetals and BHP [1][11]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is showing signs of stability with a profit rate of 40.7% and a recent increase in the CITIC Steel Index [1][11]. - The industry is experiencing a winter storage phase, with rising iron ore import inventories and production recovery [1][11]. Subsector Overview - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3356 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from last week [2][12]. - The operating rate for medium-thick plate production is at 80%, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.33% [2][12]. - Steel mills are showing a cautious outlook for the market, with expectations of weak price fluctuations in the coming week [2][12]. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The coking coal market remains weak, with the Mysteel coking coal index at 1304.6, unchanged from the previous day [3][13]. - Iron ore prices are mixed, with domestic iron concentrate prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating a stable production environment [4][14]. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Steel production is stable, with daily average iron water production at 228.1 million tons, showing a slight increase [3][13]. - The overall supply of iron ore is ample, with port inventories at high levels, leading to a lack of upward price momentum for domestic iron ore [4][14].