港股市场策略展望：从不买就跑输到买了就跑输：再看南下定价权？

Group 1 - Since September 2024, the proportion of southbound capital in transaction volume has rapidly increased to 20%-30%, nearly doubling compared to before 2024, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [3][8] - Historical reviews of two rounds of competition for pricing power in the Hong Kong stock market occurred in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021, typically initiated by policy optimizations and inflows of incremental capital [15][28] - The current southbound capital inflow is characterized by a higher proportion of medium to long-term funds, with insurance capital making 41 stakes in 2025, 35 of which were in H-shares, marking a record high in the past decade [3][31] Group 2 - The industries where southbound capital and Chinese capital have pricing power include semiconductors and dividend-paying sectors, while industries lacking pricing power include internet, hardware, software services, home appliances, and media [3][36] - The top five industries by southbound capital holdings include coal (41.8%), semiconductors (32.7%), environmental protection (24.5%), oil and petrochemicals (24.1%), and pharmaceutical biology (20.5%) [37] - The active management public funds have a low preference for Hong Kong stocks, with significant holdings concentrated in AI-related CSP giants, electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [46] Group 3 - The current sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market has fully reflected negative factors such as US-China trade friction and the high unlock peak at the end of last year, suggesting potential upward investment opportunities if liquidity pressure eases [53][54] - The spring rally in the Hong Kong stock market has a high probability of success, with southbound capital and foreign capital expected to net inflow at the beginning of the year, driven by the demand for core Chinese assets [53][54] - The pricing power of southbound capital is rapidly increasing, with expectations of a potential upward beta in the Hong Kong stock market at the beginning of the year [3][53]