Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-25 09:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly on leading companies in the white and black goods sectors, highlighting their low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth potential [2][3]. Core Insights - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. Dividend and Growth: Leading companies in the white and black goods sectors are characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth, providing a high safety margin and significant price elasticity. The impact of the trade-in policy is expected to continue positively into 2026 [2][3]. 2. Technological Transition: Key upstream component manufacturers are diversifying into emerging technology sectors such as robotics, data center temperature control, and semiconductors, seeking cross-industry transformation [2][3]. 3. Market Demand: Both domestic and international markets show promising demand, with established companies expanding production bases globally to mitigate trade fluctuations and capture growth in emerging markets [2][3]. Sales Data Summary - Air Conditioning: In December 2025, online retail sales volume was 720,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 38.5%, while offline sales volume was 162,000 units, down 42.9%. The average online retail price decreased by 4.2% to 2,981 yuan per unit, and the offline average price fell by 20.1% to 3,801 yuan per unit [2][3][35]. - Kitchen Appliances: - Range Hoods: Online sales volume was 443,000 units, down 16.8%, while offline sales were 57,000 units, down 32.1%. The online average price increased by 14.4% to 1,739 yuan per unit, while the offline average price decreased by 14.4% to 3,813 yuan per unit [3][41]. - Dishwashers: Online sales volume was 49,000 units, down 10.2%, and offline sales were 5,000 units, down 44.2%. The online average price decreased by 1.1% to 4,245 yuan per unit, while the offline average price increased by 1.4% to 7,990 yuan per unit [3][41]. Company Updates - Yitian Intelligent: Forecasts a net loss of 186 to 152 million yuan for 2025, compared to a profit of 26.54 million yuan in 2024 [5][11]. - Roborock Technology: Launched new products including the G30S Pro and P20 Ultra, featuring advanced cleaning technologies and high efficiency [5][12]. - Stock Performance: The home appliance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with notable gains from companies like Aojiahua (10.1%) and Hisense Visual (5.7%) [5][6][8]. Macro Economic Environment - As of January 23, 2026, the USD to RMB exchange rate was 6.9929, reflecting a decrease of 0.51% since the beginning of the year [46][48]. - In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,135.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.86% [48][49].