Lundin Mining 2025Q4 铜产量环比减少 0.4%至 8.70 万吨，2026 年总产量指导区间为 31 万至 33.5 万吨

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [7] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Lundin Mining's copper production was 87,032 tons, a decrease of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 7.5% year-on-year. The total copper production for 2025 was 331,232 tons, exceeding the revised guidance [2][4][11] - The Candelaria mine produced 145,471 tons of copper in 2025, benefiting from increased processing due to lower ore grades. The Caserones mine achieved a record quarterly copper production of 39,612 tons in Q4 2025 [2][4] - For 2026, copper production is expected to remain stable at 310,000 to 335,000 tons, with adjustments made due to changes in mining contracts at the Candelaria mine [6][12] Production Overview - Q4 2025 gold production was 34,129 ounces (1.06 tons), down 9.6% quarter-on-quarter and 26.5% year-on-year. Nickel production was 2,174 tons, down 20.2% quarter-on-quarter but up 34.4% year-on-year [3] - The total gold production for 2025 was 141,859 ounces (4.41 tons), a decrease of 10.5% year-on-year. Nickel production for the year was 9,907 tons, an increase of 32.3% year-on-year [4][5] 2026 Guidance - The guidance for 2026 gold production is set at 134,000 to 149,000 ounces, reflecting a decrease in underground mining rates at Candelaria. The 2027 gold production is expected to increase by approximately 10,000 ounces due to higher output from the Chapada mine [8][12] - Consolidated cash costs for 2026 are projected to be between $1.90 and $2.10 per pound, consistent with 2025 guidance. This reflects improved by-product revenues, primarily from gold and molybdenum, offset by a stronger Chilean peso [8][13] Capital Expenditures - Sustaining capital expenditures are expected to total $550 million, with significant allocations to the Candelaria and Caserones projects. Expansionary capital expenditures are projected at $445 million, including costs related to the Vicuña project [9][14] - Exploration expenditures for 2026 are planned at $53 million, focusing on resource expansion in existing and nearby mining areas, particularly at the Caserones project [10]