宏观与大类资产周报：通胀回归或为年内核心主线-20260125

Domestic Economic Outlook - The March construction season is expected to support a rebound in investment, driven by policy-oriented financial tools and a stabilization in investment trends in Q1[1] - The central bank's early-year excess MLF operations indicate a lower probability of a rate cut in the short term[1] International Economic Developments - Pressure on the independence of the Federal Reserve has temporarily eased, with expectations of a court ruling against Trump's dismissal of Cook[1] - Recent increases in long-term bond yields in the US and Japan have led to a strengthening of the yen[1] Currency and Asset Performance - On January 23, the RMB midpoint broke 7; if the USD remains stable, the RMB midpoint may rise to 6.7-6.8, with the effective exchange rate likely recovering to H2 2024 levels, maintaining the attractiveness of Chinese assets[1] - Continuous PPI recovery is expected to benefit inflation-related assets, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, construction materials, steel, and electric new energy[1] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - From January 19 to January 23, the central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 229.5 billion RMB through 7-day reverse repos, with a total of 11,810 billion RMB injected and 9,515 billion RMB maturing[2] - The average funding price for DR001 fluctuated between 1.3% and 1.4%, indicating a neutral to loose liquidity environment[2] Government Debt Financing - Local government bonds net financed 222.37 billion RMB, while national bonds net financed 344.3 billion RMB, totaling 566.7 billion RMB in net financing[6] - Upcoming local government bond issuance is planned at 439.275 billion RMB, with a net financing scale of 367.887 billion RMB[6] Market Trends - The A-share market showed strong bullish sentiment despite fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 4,136.16, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.84%[35] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline of 0.36% but has shown a year-to-date increase of 4.37%[35]