行业行深业度周报告：哈萨克斯坦两大油田停产，供应扰动提振油价-20260125

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Insights - Kazakhstan's two major oil fields have halted production, causing supply disruptions that have boosted oil prices. WTI crude futures rose by 3.11% and Brent crude futures increased by 3.16% during the period from January 16 to January 23, 2026 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Europe regarding Greenland, and uncertainties in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, continue to pose risks to the oil market [6]. - The supply constraints in the fluorochemical sector, combined with favorable demand driven by policy support, are expected to sustain high levels of market activity [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Kazakhstan's oil fields "Tengiz" and "Korolev" have suspended production due to issues with the power distribution system, potentially lasting 7 to 10 days, which will reduce exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) [6]. - The report highlights the need for vigilance regarding the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with the US increasing military presence while also delaying military actions against Iran [6]. - Domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil and gas sources and investing in offshore resources to reduce dependence on foreign energy [7]. Fluorochemicals - The issuance of HFC production quotas for 2026 has increased by 5,963 tons year-on-year, with specific increases for HFC-134a, HFC-245fa, and HFC-32 [6]. - The demand for refrigerants is expected to grow due to government subsidies and the ongoing recovery in the home appliance and automotive sectors [6]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the production of third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources [7]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor inventory reduction trend is improving, and the basic fundamentals are gradually recovering, indicating potential for further upward movement in the sector [7]. - The report recommends attention to companies involved in semiconductor materials, particularly those benefiting from domestic substitution trends [7].