地产行业周报：地产产业链关注度升温，重申优质企业或具配置价值-20260125

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in market attention towards the real estate chain, with significant weekly gains of 5.21% and 9.23% for the Shenwan real estate and building materials sectors respectively. The rebound is attributed to several factors, including a substantial rise in second-hand housing transactions in key cities, a positive earnings forecast from Poly Developments, and limited downward space for traditional real estate companies [3] - The report suggests that the real estate market is showing positive short-term signals, with ongoing favorable factors accumulating. It highlights the potential for market stabilization in the second half of 2026 to 2027, driven by easing down payment ratios and mortgage rates, which reduce the financial burden on homebuyers [3] Market Monitoring - Transaction volumes have shown a rebound, with new home sales in 50 key cities reaching 13,000 units, a 6.7% increase week-on-week, while second-hand home sales in 20 key cities reached 20,000 units, up 5.2% week-on-week. However, year-on-year comparisons show a 24% decline for new homes and a 6.7% increase for second-hand homes [8][9] - Inventory levels have decreased, with a total of 90.29 million square meters of inventory across 16 cities, reflecting a 0.5% decrease and a decommissioning cycle of 21 months [11] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a weekly increase of 5.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.62%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector stands at 63.16, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 14.08, indicating a valuation at the 95.64 percentile over the past five years [21][22] - The report notes that 78.9 billion yuan of real estate bonds were issued this week, with a total repayment amount of 109.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of -30.9 billion yuan [16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1. Real estate companies with light historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development, are expected to benefit from the "good housing" initiative [3] 2. Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market stabilization, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development [3] 3. Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, including China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property [3]