国泰君安期货锡周报-20260125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of tin remain resilient, with sufficient elasticity and long - term potential, making it attractive for low - cost long - term allocation. However, the risk of Myanmar's resumption of production should be noted, as an increase in tin ore supply from Myanmar may have a marginal negative impact [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $245 per ton, and the domestic spot premium was 0 yuan per ton. Overseas premiums declined [12][17] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin monthly structure changed from B structure to C structure [21] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventory increased by 503 tons, while futures inventory decreased by 880 tons. LME inventory increased, and the cancelled warrant ratio rose to 4.79% [28][33] 3.1.4 Capital - As of this Friday, the funds invested in SHFE tin were 5,130,280,000 yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in an inflow direction [37] 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, SHFE tin trading volume decreased, while the position volume increased. LME tin trading volume decreased, and the position volume increased [39][45] 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the SHFE tin position - to - inventory ratio rebounded [50] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In October 2025, the tin concentrate output was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In December 2025, imports were 17,637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.37%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14.55%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 14,000 yuan per ton, and that for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 8,000 yuan per ton. The import profit and loss level declined [54][55] 3.2.2 Smelting - In December 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,950 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.79%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.79%, a slight increase from last week [57][59] 3.2.3 Import - In December 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,558 tons, exports were 2,763 tons, and the net export was 1,215 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 636 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 6,632 yuan per ton [63] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption Volume - In December 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14,735 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,040 tons [71] 3.3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in October rebounded to 73.1%. The output and sales volume of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in October increased slightly [73] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In December 2025, the output of end - user products performed well. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all increased. The household appliance consumption showed a month - on - month increase, while the automobile consumption decreased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose, in line with the performance of tin prices [80][82][87]