铅产业链周度报告-20260125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market lacks driving forces, and prices are expected to remain volatile. The total inventory of lead in five regions has increased, but the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The domestic lead spot has been in a premium state. [3][5] - On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the spot import processing fee for lead concentrates with a grade of 60% continues to decline. However, primary lead smelting enterprises in Jiangxi and other places are gradually resuming production, which is expected to increase the supply of primary lead. In the secondary lead sector, enterprise profits are compressed, and the production of smelters in Anhui, Shandong, Henan and other places is limited. At the same time, secondary lead smelting enterprises in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places will have an early holiday, and the overall output of secondary lead is under pressure. [7] - On the consumption side, battery consumption is weak, and the inventory of finished batteries continues to accumulate. Against the background of weak consumption and increasing inventory of new batteries, the Spring Festival holiday of lead - acid battery enterprises will be longer than in previous years, and the holiday time will be earlier. [7] - Regarding trading strategies, in the unilateral strategy, the lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the lead price will generally remain volatile, and short - volatility operations can be considered. In terms of the spread strategy, the domestic lead inventory has increased while the overseas inventory is under pressure. Continuous attention can be paid to the opportunity of long domestic and short overseas arbitrage. [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - Price and Spread: The closing price of the main SHFE lead contract last week was 17,095 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.17%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,145 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.29%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 2,016.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.03%. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 44.56 dollars/ton last Friday, a decrease of 0.38 dollars/ton compared with the previous Friday. The bonded area lead premium was 95 dollars/ton last Friday, an increase of 5 dollars/ton compared with the previous Friday. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium was 0 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous Friday. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead was - 125 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous Friday. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 60 yuan/ton last Friday, unchanged from the previous Friday. [8] - Inventory: The SHFE lead warrant inventory last week was 27,966 tons, an increase of 702 tons compared with the previous week. The total SHFE lead inventory was 29,351 tons, a decrease of 7,693 tons compared with the previous week. The social inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 215,175 tons, an increase of 8,825 tons compared with the previous week, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 13.06%, a decrease of 8.11% compared with the previous week. [8] - Transaction and Position: The trading volume of the main SHFE lead contract last Friday was 37,429 lots, a decrease of 83,984 lots compared with the previous week. The position last week was 65,194 lots, a decrease of 17,474 lots compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 last Friday was 5,194 lots, a decrease of 5,330 lots compared with the previous week. The position last week was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots compared with the previous week. [8] Lead Supply: Lead Concentrates, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - Lead Concentrates: The import volume, actual consumption, and production of lead concentrates have shown fluctuations in previous years. The lead concentrate inventory in Lianyungang has also fluctuated. The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrates have changed, and the smelting profit of lead concentrates (processing) has also shown different trends over the years. The operating rate of lead concentrate mines has also fluctuated. [25][27][28] - Primary and Secondary Lead: The production of primary lead, secondary lead, and the combined production of primary and secondary lead have shown different trends in previous years. The weekly operating rate of primary lead and the operating rate of secondary lead have also fluctuated. The by - product output of silver, the price of 1 silver, and the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China have also changed over the years. [31][32][33] - Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises has fluctuated. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and the profit and loss of secondary lead have also changed over the years. [35][36][37] - Import and Export: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of lead ingots in China, the import profit and loss of lead, and the export volume of lead ingots have all shown different trends in previous years. [39] Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and End - Users - Batteries: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries has fluctuated over the years. The monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers have also changed. The export volume of batteries has shown different trends in previous years. [43] - Consumption and End - Users: The actual consumption of lead has shown different trends in previous years. The monthly output of automobiles and motorcycles has also fluctuated. [45]