几内亚矿石价格下跌，氧化铝供给维持高位

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of Guinea ore has declined while the supply of alumina remains high. Although the supply of domestic ore is tight, it cannot reverse the downward price trend. The alumina spot price has decreased, and the industry is in an oversupply situation with accumulating inventory. In the long - term, the price still faces downward pressure, but there may be a short - term bottom - up rebound due to policy expectations [2][3][15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Last week, the domestic ore price remained stable, with the delivered tax - included price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi at 665 yuan. The supply of domestic ore is tight, supporting the price but unable to reverse the downward trend. The ALD Guinea ore index price dropped from 66 dollars/tonne to 61.5 dollars/tonne. Newly arrived ore during the period was 4.482 million tons, including 3.595 million tons from Guinea and 0.887 million tons from Australia. The reference price for Cape ships from Guinea to China is 22 dollars/ton [2][12] - Alumina: The alumina spot price declined last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2580 - 2640 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2616.8 yuan/ton, a 10.8 - yuan decrease. The port price of imported alumina remained unchanged at 2700 - 2740 yuan/ton. Aluminum plant tender transactions continued to decline, and about 70,000 tons of expired warehouse receipts were cancelled at the Xinjiang delivery warehouse. In terms of imports, there were 3 overseas transactions. Due to tightened ore supply policies, Indonesia's Nanshan Bintan reduced production on 2 production lines starting on the evening of January 15th. As of the end of the week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2608 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 68 yuan/ton. The national alumina supply was relatively stable, with a built - in capacity of 114.62 million tons, an operating capacity of 96.55 million tons (an increase of 300,000 tons from the previous week), and an operating rate of 84.2% [3][13] - Demand: Domestically, the second - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Zhala Aluminum is still in the commissioning stage. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 44.463 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. Overseas, the KAI electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is expanding, with an operating capacity of about 135,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 29.888 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons [13] - Inventory: As of Thursday (January 22nd), the national alumina inventory was 5.059 million tons, an increase of 71,000 tons from the previous week. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises continued to increase but at a slower pace; the bagged inventory of alumina enterprises increased slightly; the port inventory fluctuated slightly. The phased contradiction between shipping and unloading at both ends continued, and the inventory at delivery warehouses and in transit increased significantly [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 138,697 tons, a decrease of 32,082 tons from the previous week. The alumina futures price oscillated. Fundamentally, alumina enterprises are still not determined to cut production, the industry remains in an oversupply situation, and inventory continues to accumulate. Considering the current supply and demand, the previous price was over - depressed. With the expected policy introduction, the price rebounded from the bottom, but the industry is still in an oversupply cycle, and the price still faces long - term downward pressure [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - Theoretical Import Loss in the North: As of Friday (January 23rd), the Australian alumina quotation was about 306 dollars/ton, a 2 - dollar decrease from January 16th. According to real - time data, the cost of reaching the northern ports in China is about 2667 yuan/ton, with a theoretical import loss of about 57 yuan/ton in the north [16] - Price - Driven Procurement: Affected by the downward alumina spot price, large downstream enterprises have increased their spot alumina procurement. Since the beginning of the month, several aluminum plants in the northwest region have purchased at least 80,000 tons of alumina spot, with the delivered price to the plant at 2760 - 2800 yuan/ton; some orders are based on the institutional guidance price [16] - Net Import in December: In December 2025, China exported 206,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 22.6% and a year - on - year increase of 9.3%; the cumulative export from January to December was 2.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.8%. In December, the import of alumina was 228,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 1389.7%; the cumulative import from January to December was 1.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%. The net import in December was 22,000 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to December reached 1.35 million tons [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost - The report provides charts on domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic steam coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various domestic provinces, with data sources from Shanghai Steel Union and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute [17][19][21] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides charts on domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures, and domestic weekly alumina supply - demand balance. The data sources are Shanghai Steel Union, Wind, and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. It also shows the historical data of alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacities and the supply - demand gap from September 2025 to January 2026 [34][39][41] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides charts on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipt volume and open interest, and the ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina open interest to warehouse receipts, with data sources from Aladdin, Wind, and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute [44][47][50]