转债周度跟踪：转债跟随小微盘同步活跃-20260125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent small - and micro - cap stocks have been active. Despite policy - driven cooling signals, they still benefit from loose liquidity, with the CSI 2000 and Wind Small - and Micro - Cap Index leading the gains. Convertible bonds, which are well - matched in style, have seen a significant rise in their underlying stocks, leading to a simultaneous increase in their valuation. Valuation indicators such as the convertible bond's 100 - yuan premium rate and the median price have reached new highs since 2017. Structurally, the price ranges of 130 - 140 yuan and above 150 yuan have shown strong performance, while newly - issued convertible bonds have underperformed. Currently, there is a consensus on the bull market in the equity market, with high capital activity. Convertible bonds are experiencing a "double - hit" market in terms of parity and valuation, but in the state of strong equity characteristics and high conversion premium rates, the risk of forced redemptions of individual bonds should still be guarded against [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Outlook - Small - and micro - cap stocks are active. The convertible bond market is well - matched in style, with a significant increase in the underlying stocks and a simultaneous rise in valuation. High - parity convertible bonds are active, while newly - issued ones perform poorly. There is a "double - hit" market, but forced redemption risks should be noted [2][3]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the underlying stocks of convertible bonds performed actively, and the convertible bonds rose in tandem. The 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 0.9% to 33.5%, reaching the 100th percentile since 2017 and remaining above the 2 - times standard deviation [2][4]. - The valuation of convertible bonds in each parity range has increased significantly. The increase in the equity - biased area is slightly higher than that in the bond - biased area, but the gap has narrowed. The valuation in the 120 - 140 yuan parity range has increased significantly due to the high activity of underlying stocks, while the valuation in the range above 140 yuan has only increased slightly due to forced redemption disturbances [2][8]. - From the perspective of individual bonds, in the high - parity area, the conversion premium rates of Xinfu and Yinbang have decreased significantly due to the forced redemption process and rising forced - redemption expectations, while the valuations of Shuangliang, Hebang, Ruike, Zhoubang, Hengshuai, and Daimei have increased significantly due to the significant rise of their underlying stocks. The valuations in the balanced and bond - biased areas have generally increased slightly. The valuations of near - maturity bonds are weak, and the valuation of newly - issued Anke bonds is slowly compressing [2][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Tianjian, Fuli, Sailong, Shentong, Beigang, and Huazheng convertible bonds announced redemptions, and 2 convertible bonds announced non - redemptions, with a forced - redemption rate of 75%. Currently, there are 49 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 8 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 10 are expected to issue announcements of potential redemption triggers. In addition, 26 convertible bonds are expected to enter the forced - redemption counting period within the next month [2][17][19]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Hongchuan convertible bonds proposed a downward revision, and Fangyuan convertible bonds announced the result of the downward revision (not revised to the bottom). As of now, 101 convertible bonds are in the temporary non - downward - revision range, 20 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but has not announced while the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price, 16 are accumulating the days for downward revision, and 3 have issued the board of directors' pre - plans for downward revision but have not held a general meeting of shareholders [2][23]. 3.3.3 Put Option - No convertible bonds issued conditional put - option announcements this week. As of now, 3 convertible bonds are accumulating the days to trigger the put option, among which 1 has proposed a downward revision, and 2 are in the temporary non - downward - revision range [2][27]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - As of now, there are 10 convertible bonds in the process of approval for registration, with a total issuance scale of 8.8 billion yuan, and no convertible bonds are in the process of passing the listing committee [29].