能源化工尿素周度报告-20260125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly view on urea is that the oscillation center will move upward. In the short - term, the sentiment in the chemical sector is positive, combined with the neutral fundamental situation of urea and the strong expectation for the spring plowing season, the price center will gradually move up. The demand - side driving force is slightly on the strong side, and whether the driving force can further strengthen depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1830 yuan/ton, and the support level is expected to be around 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation - The report shows the trends of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, BoDa, JinKai, DongPing), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts. It also presents the domestic and international spot prices of urea, including the ex - factory prices and market prices of small - particle urea in different regions in China, and the FOB and CFR prices of large - particle urea in different international regions [5][9][16][20]. 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons; in 2025, it was 6,640,000 tons; and in 2026, it is expected to be 6,510,000 tons [24]. 3.2.2 Production Plan - Multiple urea production enterprises had maintenance plans from 2025 to early 2026, with the reasons including routine maintenance and loss - based (cost - based) maintenance [26]. 3.2.3 Production - The daily production of urea remained at a high level when the production profit was at the break - even point [27]. 3.2.4 Cost - The raw material prices stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories increased. The report also provided cost calculations for different production processes such as fixed - bed and gas - flow bed in the Shanxi region [30]. 3.2.5 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea was currently in a profitable state [35]. 3.2.6 Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, the export policy tightened. The report listed the monthly net import (export) data from 2018 to 2025 (E) [40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand has a seasonal strengthening trend. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. The report also shows the seasonal demand for different crops in different regions [46][49]. 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The report presents the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers [53][54]. - Melamine: It shows the production profit, market price, production volume, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [58][59]. - Real Estate and Panels: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, while panel exports have resilience [60]. 3.4 Inventory - As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week, a 4.07% month - on - month decrease. As of January 22, 2026, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [2][65]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the trends of international urea prices, including the FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, and the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil [69][70][71][72].