基本金属行业周报：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续突破历史新高-20260125

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - Geopolitical disturbances combined with central bank gold purchases have led to precious metal prices consistently breaking historical highs. This week, COMEX gold rose by 8.30% to $4,983.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver increased by 14.80% to $103.26 per ounce. SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to ¥1,115.64 per gram, while SHFE silver increased by 11.04% to ¥24,965.00 per kilogram [1][30][34]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The geopolitical situation, particularly regarding Greenland and tariffs imposed by the U.S. on several European countries, has heightened market concerns, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals [3][52]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 27,574.43 gold ounces, and SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 544,084.20 ounces, indicating strong investor interest [34][54]. - The gold-silver ratio fell by 5.66% to 48.26, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [34]. Base Metals - In the LME market, copper rose by 2.54% to $13,128.50 per ton, while aluminum increased by 1.26% to $3,173.50 per ton. Zinc rose by 1.87% to $3,269.00 per ton, but lead fell by 0.44% to $2,035.00 per ton [9][10]. - Domestic copper supply is under pressure due to strikes and accidents at overseas mines, which are expected to impact annual production targets [11][12]. - The demand for copper is supported by structural growth in emerging industries such as robotics and clean energy, despite current seasonal demand weakness [12][13]. Small Metals - Magnesium prices decreased by 2.60% to ¥17,980 per ton, with stable demand but low market acceptance of current prices [19][20]. - Molybdenum prices increased by 0.78% to ¥257,500 per ton, driven by rising costs and strong demand from steel manufacturers [21]. - The overall market for small metals is experiencing a tightening supply situation, which is expected to support prices in the near term [21].