碳酸锂：去库现实叠加供需改善预期，短期延续高位运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the lithium carbonate futures prices increased significantly, breaking through the previous high, with the 2605 contract closing at 181,520 yuan/ton (a weekly increase of 35,320 yuan/ton), the 2607 contract closing at 182,640 yuan/ton (a weekly increase of 35,700 yuan/ton), and the spot price rising 13,000 yuan/ton to 171,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The de - stocking pattern continues, and overseas mining costs have risen significantly. The new mining royalty policy in Nigeria has increased the mining cost of lithium ore. The domestic weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 399 tons to 22,217 tons. This week, the shipment volume of Australian ore increased by 49,000 tons to 107,000 tons, while the shipment volume of Chilean lithium salt decreased by 500 tons to 3,840 tons [2]. - Short - term demand is strong, and the power terminal is waiting to recover. The actual production reduction of cathode material factories is limited, and the demand for export rush continues to be released. Overseas demand is expected to improve marginally, while domestic new energy vehicle domestic demand is still weak in the short term. The energy storage industry maintains high prosperity [2]. - This week, lithium carbonate continued to be destocked, with the industry inventory dropping by 783 tons to 108,896 tons, and the inventory transferred to downstream. The number of newly registered futures warehouse receipts increased by 698 to 28,156 [3]. - The core logic of strong reality and expectations remains unchanged. The supply is expected to contract marginally, and the demand shows the characteristic of “not being in the off - season”. However, potential demand feedback risks and the risk of phased correction caused by long - position profit - taking need to be monitored [4]. - For unilateral trading, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 170,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton. For inter - period trading, it is recommended to do positive spreads as the near - term supply and demand are tight. For hedging, due to large fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to hedge with options [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report presents figures on the price difference between lithium carbonate spot and futures, and the inter - period price difference of lithium carbonate futures, sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Ore) - Figures show the processing spot and disk profits of spodumene concentrate, the average price trend of spodumene concentrate, the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate, with data from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [10][12]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products) - Multiple figures display various prices of lithium carbonate products, such as the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in East China, the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade to battery - grade lithium carbonate and the futures discount cost, etc. It also includes data on the monthly production, import and export volume, inventory, etc. of lithium carbonate, all sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [14][19][20]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - Figures show the monthly production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production of various types of domestic power lithium batteries and lithium batteries, with data from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [27][28][30].